We could end up with a Lok Sabha in which, for the first time, the single largest party has less than one-fourth of the 543 seats and no front has even a third. That is what would happen if elections were held now, according to a Times Now-CVoter opinion poll. It projects that the NDA would win 156 seats with the BJP getting 131 of them, while the UPA would win 136 with the Congress pegged at 119.
The poll estimated that the 'Third Front', which includes the Left, SP, RJD, TDP, BJD and some other regional parties, would win 129 seats and the 'Fourth Front', including the BSP, Trinamool Congress and AIADMK, would win 122. In short, there could be a fairly even four-way split, though the Third and Fourth Fronts are not really firmly established, at least as of now, and others
may also morph in the coming months. Poll gives Sena-BJP 26 seats, 17 to Cong-NCP in Maharashtra
If the predictions of the Times Now-C Voter opinion poll come true, the SP, BSP, Left, AIADMK and Trinamool would each have between 22 and 33 seats, possibly giving them a crucial role in the formation of the next government in New Delhi.
With the two big national parties put together not winning even half of the seats, the regional bosses would really be able to call the shots in such a scenario.
Among the bigger states, the poll projects SP and BSP between them winning threefourths of the 80 seats in UP, with the SP picking up 33 and the BSP 27. The Congress, which won 21 seats in the state in 2009, is projected to win just five in 2014 and the BJP is estimated to gain just a couple of seats to get 12.
In Maharashtra, it's advantage NDA and bad news for Sharad Pawar's NCP, if the poll has got it right. It estimates that the Shiv Sena will win 15 seats of the state's 48 seats and the BJP 11, the same as the Congress. The NCP is projected to get just 6 seats, Raj Thackeray's MNS opening its account with 3.
In Andhra Pradesh, a state in which the Congress won 33 of the 42 seats in 2009, the CVoter poll projects it will win a mere 7. Jagan Reddy's YSR Congress, a party that didn't exist in 2009, is estimated to win 14 seats and the Telengana Rashtra Samiti 11, leaving just 7 for Chandrababu Naidu's TDP. Of course, the AP numbers could change dramatically once the formation of Telangana is announced, as expected soon.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee will continue to fly high despite her alliance with the Congress having broken up since the last elections. The poll projects that the Trinamool Congress will win 22 of the state's 42 seats and the Left will win 17, a gain of two seats for each of them, while the Congress tally will drop from 6 to 2. In Bihar, the break-up between Nitish Kumar's JD (U) and the BJP seems to be hurting the former more. In fact, the poll projects that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party in the state winning 14 of the 40 seats, Lalu Prasad's RJD coming a close second with 12 and JD(U) in third place at 11.
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