Worst not over yet for India, says OECD

New Delhi: There seems to be little respite from the economic downturn with the OECD, the Paris-based agency, saying that growth is slowing down in India. "In China, India and to a lesser degree in Brazil, the composite leading indicators (CLIs) point to growth below trend," the think-tank said in a statement. 

    Compared to the long-term trend of economic activity, which is put at 100, the Indian economy had a score of 97.2, the lowest level seen in the last five months. Compared to January 2012, the decline is of the order of 2.25%, the second worst among a group of 11 economies that includes Brics and the G-7. Only Russia put up a worse performance, with a fall of 2.8%. But OECD saidthat the CLI indicated a pick-up in growth, indicating that the worst was over.
    In India's case, the worst was not yet over with the CLI graph continuing to fall since 2011 after plateauing in 2010. In fact, OECD did not spot a turning point in the curve despite the finance ministry making a pronouncement over a month ago. 
    The finance ministry had contested the Central Statistical Office's estimate of the Indian economy expanding at 5% during 2012-13, the slowest pace of growth in a decade, and had suggested that the increase in economic activity would be of the order of 5.5%. North Block had based its assessment on three "turning points" but apart from an improved export performance, there has been little to cheer. 
    On the manufacturing front, car and truck sales, a key barometer of economic activity, are down. 
    Similarly, demand for white goods remains tepid. And, the slowdown in the manufacturing space has impacted the demand for services, as CSO had estimated. WB chief sees 6% growth next year 
NewDelhi:The Indian economy is likely to grow at a rate of 6% next year and probably more thereafter as exports markets start doing better, World Bank president Jim Yong Kim said on Monday. Kim, who is on a three-day India visit, met finance minister P Chidambaram here. 
    "Growth rate of 5% (projected for this fiscal) here is one that has been somewhat disappointing but we are very encouraged by what has happened and what will happen and we think India will get back to higher levels of growth," he said. The Indian economy is subject to global slowdown, he said, adding that "as export market starts doing better, we think India will do better as well". 
    Indian economy is estimated to have grown 5% in 2012-13. The Economic Survey of 2012-13 has predicted a growth rate of 6.1-6.7% for the next fiscal.
    In his meeting with the World Bank chief, Chidambaram underlined the need for enhancing the capital base of the World Bank to meet the challenges of poverty reduction and infrastructure development in the developing countries. AGENCIES