Truce Unlikely, Mulayam & Maya Key To UPA Survival
Kolkata/New Delhi: Trinamool Congress boss Mamata Banerjee on Tuesday delivered a stiff blow to the UPA government by withdrawing her support in protest against the hike in fuel prices and the decision to allow FDI in multibrand retail, reducing the regime to a minority and to critical dependence on fickle-minded and ultra-pragmatic players like the SP and the BSP.
The announcement in Kolkata may not pose an immediate threat to the UPA government, but will lead to a spell of political uncertainty that can bring forward the general election scheduled for 2014.
Mamata's bombshell defied the estimate of the Congress as well as many in her own party that she would stop at pulling out her ministers and not go so far as to pull the rug from under PM Manmohan Singh's feet altogether. The contrast from the way she had acquiesced in the Congress's choice of Pranab Mukherjee for President was stunning and left the government reeling.
The West Bengal chief minister blamed the split on the Congress, and said it was the latter's recent unilateralism in reforms measures that had forced her to take the drastic step. "We wanted to continue in the UPA, but were not allowed to stay. We were kept in the dark on major decisions despite our being the second largest ally in the UPA. If we don't take a decision now, they are ready with the pension bill," she said.
Mamata said her ministers will submit their resignations to the President on Friday after jumma prayers at 3pm, but the window of three days is unlikely to result in a resolution because the UPA government is unlikely to accept the terms she has asked for—near-rollback of diesel price hike, a100% hike in the cap on the number of subsidized LPG cylinders, and putting FDI in multi-brand retail on hold.
Congress general secretary Janardan Dwivedi suggested that the possibility of a reconciliation was yet to be exhausted. He said Mamata was still a valuable ally, and the government could look at the issues raised by the Trinamool Congress chief.
However, party sources said compliance with her wish list would amount to an unconditional surrender. It would be a fatal blow to the government's effort to improve its finances and recoup its legacy, and make the prospect of a downgrade by international rating agencies a real one.
MINISTERS TO QUIT AFTER JUMMA PRAYER DIDI STICKS TO HER GUNS, DEMANDS: 1
Scrap decision
to open FDI in multibrand retail 2
Diesel hike of 5
should be cut by 3-4 3
Double number
of subsidized LPG cylinders from 6 to 12 WHAT NEXT? Scenario 1
Cong tries to placate Mamata by meeting her demands. That'll badly erode UPA
govt's credibility—especially after PM and FM had ruled out rollback—and cripple fiscal consolidation. But with or without Mamata, govt unlikely to be gung-ho on reforms any longer Scenario 2
Mamata goes but Mulayam gives support from
outside. Govt survives but saddled with another demanding ally. Mulayam may play hardball to prevent govt's incumbency from rubbing off on SP. May pull the plug when it feels the time's ripe for polls Scenario 3
Minority UPA plays its hand deftly, takes along SP & BSP, softens allies like DMK &
NCP. Govt limps along but is vulnerable to all kinds of pressure from inside and outside UPA DMK to join oppn bandh T he DMK too decided to flex its muscles by joining the opposition's nationwide bandh against the Centre. The DMK brass, which held a meet on Tuesday, is reportedly considering various options. "The party will continue to support the UPA govt but will also see to it that the Centre rolls back some of its controversial decisions," a senior DMK MP told TOI. "Mamata's withdrawal of support should make the Congress realize the need to take coalition partners along on crucial issues."P 17 Early polls not improbable T he UPA can count on over 300 seats after factoring in outside support, but the figure might be less comforting than it seems, given a deepening disorientation gripping the government. If the impression of a lame duck government deepens, it can only alter the estimates about the longevity of the regime. The BJP may not be battle-ready, but will be prepared to take its chances and not wait till 2014. P 17 Congress can't rest easy on SP, BSP cushion
Acapitulation would also defeat the government's effort to buff up its image by projecting the impression of a freshly-summoned will to press on with the reforms agenda. To the contrary, it would appear to be suing for peace and that too in sackcloth and ashes if it signs on to Mamata's agenda. Mamata was in no mood to relent, and showed her hostile intent by echoing the BJP's charge that FDI in retail was intended to distract popular attention away from Coalgate—something which also dashed hopes of Mamata extending outside support.
With Mamata spurning all overtures from the Congress, including the one that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh himself made on Monday, for talks, there is a strong likelihood that resignations of Trinamool ministers will be accepted without much delay and the vacancies filled up when the reshuffle takes place.
The desertion of Trinamool's 19 members in Lok Sabha leaves the UPA with a bench strength of 254 or 18 short of the majority mark in Lok Sabha. The government does have "reserves" like the SP, BSP and RJD who have consistently rescued the government from messy situations, and can count on several smaller parties and Independents, who usually tilt for the regime of the day.
In fact, the support from these quarters can take the UPA's figure to above 300. The Congress's calculation puts the tally of the ruling alliance at 282 even after discounting the 22 Lok Sabha members belonging to Samajwadi Party which hopes to profit from an early election.
However, the cushion will work in "fair weather" conditions, offering no guarantee against "rent seeking" by Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati who can ruthlessly leverage their support. The government faces no lifethreatening risk immediately since it is not required to face Parliament before January 6, but its ministers are already looking forward to what they called a hobbled existence.
"We will have to deal with demand-based support of these parties and that too on a day-to-day basis," said a senior Congress leader, confirming the estimate that the Trinamool's pullout has rendered the government fragile. Even for following up on the measures that triggered Mamata's withdrawal, government will be dependent on players whose support to reforms have been opportunistic.
The SP repeated its opposition on Tuesday while the DMK's support to the bandh against fuel price hike on September 20 underlined the problems awaiting the reformers in the government.
Mamata pointed to the cost that her strike may exact. "The government can stay for 3 months or six months, I don't know. But they have lost the credibility. And if they cannot maintain friendship with us, then they cannot maintain friendship with anybody," she said.
The West Bengal CM also said the Congress's tactic of playing one partner off against another had its limitations and she had exposed that. Accusing the Congress of indulging in "blackmail politics, she said, "When they have trouble with Mamata, they go to Mayawati, if they have trouble with Mayawati, they go to Mulayam, if there is problem with Nitish (Kumar of JD-U) they go to Lalu, this blackmailing politics."
DIDI SPEAK
We have a majority
in Bengal, the Congress doesn't have the same at the Centre
Can we live well when our head is cut off? The common man is suffering. Subsidy is given by people's money and not government's
We'll oppose price hike in fertilizer and pension bill. Someone has to bell the cat. There's no reason for Congress and Left to rejoice. Bengal has taken this big decision for the country  |
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