Experts warn growth may be below 6% in 2012-13

New Delhi: Is India staring at sub 6% growth in 2012-13? Several economists are paring their growth estimates due to the erratic monsoon rains and the gloomy global economic outlook and say the possibility of growth slipping below the 6% mark has increased. 

    Ratings agency Crisil on Monday slashed its GDP forecast for 2012-13 to 5.5% from its June estimate of 6.5% due to deficient rainfall and deterioration in the Eurozone growth outlook. 
    "The downward revision in India's growth forecast factors in the adverse impact of rainfall deficiency (an expected deficiency of 15% for June-September 2012, as per Indian Meteorological Department) and worsening of the Eurozone growth outlook," the agency said. 
    It also raised the average inflation estimate for 2012-13 to 8% from 7% earlier, taking into account the adverse impact of the deficient rainfall on food inflation. Food inflation is running in double digits and economists say delay in implementing plans to ease supplies may keep food prices high. 
    Roubini Global Economics, a leading economic think tank led by eminent economist Nouriel Roubini, also expects growth to slip below the 6% mark in 2012-13 due to the truant monsoon rains. 
    "Given the worsening monsoon, we expect India's GDP for FY13 to come in at under 6% and inflation beyond 8% before it starts to ease," Kunal Kundu, senior economist at Roubini Global Economics India, said. 
    Any sharp slowdown in growth is expected to pile more pressure on public finances which may further widen the fiscal deficit from the estimated 5.1% of GDP for 2012-13.