Cong Razed In Biggest State, Punjab, Goa; Holds Manipur Dead Heat In U’khand Mixed Fortunes For BJP

UP HAS SPOKEN, NO RAHUL MAYA Mulayam-Akhilesh Crush Cong 224-28. Now, UPA Faces Even Greater Uncertainty Diwakar | TNN      Uttar Pradesh, by virtue of its monstrous size, has always been the mother of all state elections. But this time around, it was invested with even greater importance because of Rahul Gandhi's brave decision to stake his personal appeal on it.      In the event, the Congress's  big bout before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections turned into a big rout on Tuesday as Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party crushed Mayawati's BSP and Rahul's aspirations to script its resurgence in Uttar Pradesh.      The Congress also lost in Punjab—which it was tipped to win—and Goa, and fell short of the majority mark in Uttarakhand.      The Congress fared miserably, managing only 28 seats in UP—just six more than its disastrous score five years ago. The performance was, in fact, worse than the worstcase scenario drawn up by the party, raising a big question mark on the effectiveness of Rahul as a vote-catcher. Coming after the party's rout in Bihar two years ago, the UP debacle appeared to underline the limits of the appeal of the party's mascot.      A win in tiny Manipur can hardly be a consolation for a party that was looking for a big bounce on what it thought would be a Super Tuesday. It was banking on a win in Punjab and Uttarakhand as well as a perceptible improvement in UP to bring some respite for the UPA government at the Centre, which has been hit by scams and is hamstrung by a growing perception of inaction.      The results have put paid to any hopes of the UPA regaining an upper hand in decisionmaking, and in negotiations with assertive allies like Mamata Banerjee. Mulayam's victory means that the Congress cannot hope to automatically get the SP to play the buffer against Didi's maverick ways.      While the UPA can expect the support of the 22 BSP members in the Lok Sabha since Mayawati won't want early elections, its space for manoeuvre will remain cramped not just in pushing through big-ticket economic reforms but also on contentious measures like the NCTC. The results may have also queered the Congress's chances of getting its own nominee elected in the presidential elections in July.  SP men attack journos      On a day when the SP promised it would not associate with goons, its workers attacked journalists in Jhansi. The violence started after SP candidate Chandrapal Singh Yadav was found trailing by over 4,000 votes, against BSP candidate Krishna Pal Singh Rajpoot. Some 1,500 SP supporters pelted stones and assaulted journalists when they began reporting the violence, forcing them to lock themselves in a school room. P 19      WHAT THEY      SAID THEN…  We can form government in UP on our own strength DIGVIJAYA SINGH | FEB 8  We'll win over 125 seats and I will talk to you on Tuesday DIGVIJAYA | TO A TV ANCHOR, MARCH 3  We will win more seats than in 2007. Just look at the number of people at my ralliesMAYAWATI | ON FEB 19  Today I hold the master key to power MAYAWATI | ON FEB 21  We are winning...(But) even if you give 2 or 4 seats to the Congress, we will not ally with thieves and goondas RAHUL GANDHI | ON FEB 5  AND NOW…  I led the campaign, so I take responsibility. We fought well, but the results were not so good. Organizationally, we are not where we should be in UP. Our fundamentals were weak…We haven't done well in all of UP (when asked about Congress' debacle in the Gandhi family's home turf of Rae Bareli) RAHUL GANDHI | ON MARCH 6  We couldn't convert the attraction of the people for Congress into votes and shares. This shows the failure of the organization, state leadership and myself…Rahul Gandhi was not projected as CM, his litmus test will come when he is projected as PM DIGVIJAYA SINGH | MARCH 6  Politics is like that. We lost last time, but won this time. We may lose again. Similarly, Rahul has lost this time but may win tomorrow...There will be no politics of revenge, no breaking of statues. Those who want to enjoy these spaces can do so AKHILESH YADAV | MARCH 6No clear national winner      But while Congress was a loser, the results did not throw up a national winner, highlighting once again the political fragmentation that has compelled patchwork coalitions at the Centre and prevented successive regimes from taking bold decisions even on issues that cry out for attention.      The Congress's torment was caused by two father-son duos, Mulayam-Akhilesh in UP and Parkash-Sukhbir Badal in Punjab, as they moulded a winning formula of projecting change with continuity.      SP's 224 seats is the biggest-ever for any one party in the last two decades. It surpassed BJP's tally in 1991, won on the back of a surcharged Ram temple movement (also Uttarakhand had not been formed then and the UP assembly's strength was 425). The victory was facilitated by the solid support of Muslims to the SP as well as the appeal of a sober Akhilesh among sections that have historically been opposed to SP and on whom Rahul had banked.      Even as SP more than doubled its tally by 128 from 96, and BSP crashed to 80 from 206, Congress and BJP (which slipped to 47 from 50) were reduced to the status of 'alsorans' in a state where both must do well if they wish to lead a coalition at the Centre in two years' time. The success of Akhilesh along with those of B C Khanduri in Uttarakhand and Manohar Parrikar in Goa disprove those who consider moderation and sobriety a handicap in politics.      Congress's defeat in Punjab was a shocker, even if not on the scale of UP. The Badals defied the entrenched revolving-door pattern in Punjab where power has changed hands every five years. The Badal & Badal show helped ally BJP to show up as retaining power in Punjab and cover up the magnitude of its failure in UP.