Tuesday, September 13, 2011

India Least Favoured among Rising Markets

Fund managers overweight on EMs, but fear a sell-off if Euro zone crisis deepens
MUMBAI 
    India is among the five least preferred emerging markets, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers for September. In overall terms, fund managers are overweight on emerging market equities. However, if the banking crisis in Europe spirals out of control, emerging market equities will be vulnerable to further sell-offs, the survey report said. 
"Sixty-eight percent of survey respondents now view the eurozone debt crisis as the largest of risks, up from 43% in June and 60% in August. Sentiment towards European banks is at its lowest since the beginning of this survey," the BoFA ML Survey said. The BoFA ML survey was done on a sample size of 286 money managers with $831 billion of assets under management. 
While global investors have lowered their growth expectations for China, emerging market (EM) remains a consensus overweight. A net 30% of investors (fund managers who were surveyed) report being overweight on EM, up from 27% in August. 
Over 40% respondents sounded extremely bullish on Brazil, which recently underwent a 50-bps rate cut that bolstered sentiment towards equity assets. Overseas investors have trimmed their overweight positions in Indonesia, while adding more to Russia and China in September. Taiwan, Malaysia, Colombia, Poland and India 
are the least favoured markets in September. 
In terms of sectoral allocations, EM investors remain focused on consumption-related businesses and technology. Overseas fund managers are maintaining under
weight positions in utility, materials, healthcare and engineering & industrial companies in September. 
Though foreign investors are finding 'value pockets' in emerging markets, investors' risk aversion has soared to levels last seen in March 2009 in the wake of the 
global financial crisis. A net 45% of respondents are taking lower risk than normal relative to their benchmarks, up nearly 20% points from August. Cash holdings remain notably high at an average 4.9% of portfolios, with more than onethird of investors overweight cash. 
India Survey Sees Sensex at 20-22k by Dec 
MUMBAI An India investor survey report prepared by JPMorgan Asset Management - Value-Notes expects benchmark Sensex to trade between 20,000 and 22,000 by end of this year. According to the report, the investment sentiment is affected by concerns such as recession, frequent hikes in interest rates and volatility in the domestic investment environment. Despite witnessing a 4.2-point decline from the last quarter, the 'Retail Investor Confidence Index' ranks the highest at 137.5 points. Retail investors' activity in mutual funds has improved 11% since the last quarter, it said.


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