HEART-TO-HEART ON INDIA

Slowdown on mind HEART-TO-HEART ON INDIA

GLOBALISATION is not a oneway street to corporate conquests abroad and blistering growth at home, experience is teaching India Inc. Hurricanes off the US coast, not to speak of financial turbulence in the West, or rise in political temperature in West Asia can hurt bottomlines in India. In these new global challenges, there could be new opportunities as well. A select few of India's corporate elite will get a dekko at these opportunities churning out of global challenges, come September 24, when The Economic Times assembles a truly global panel of experts in the Capital to discuss the theme, 'Slowing global economy: Challenges and opportunities for India Inc'. 

    Global growth has slowed down, from 4% in 2006 to 3.7% in 2007. The growth rate of world GDP is expected to come down further to 2.7% in 2008, according to the World Bank. Indian economy is still forecast to grow at 7.7% — a rollicking rate of growth that would be unmatched by any large economy other than China. Yet the mood in India is grim, whether on Dalal street where stock prices are coming down, or for the man on the street who sees escalating prices. 
    A slowing global economy pushes down demand. So, commodity prices have started moderating, including that of oil and steel. 
    Falling oil prices immediately offer some respite to practically everyone, except refineries, which will now have to sell refined products benchmarked against crude prices lower than the ones at which they bought the crude in the first place. But will lower oil prices dampen the current, and wholly welcome enthusiasm for new investment in both oil exploration and renewable energy to reduce oil dependence? Most industries would welcome lower commodity prices. But this is not a happy story that rubber growers in Kerala would be willing to buy. Indian BPOs to benefit from slowdown in rich countries 
    Higher farm prices boosting rural incomes or lower input costs for industry? Which would benefit the Indian economy in the long run? 
    As a slowdown in rich countries forces companies to tighten belts further, it should logically lead to greater outsourcing of work to lowcost destinations, including India. But would this devolve as a generalised benefit across India's BPO sector? Or would there be a bias in favour of the bigger BPOs capable of offering genuine process innovation and complex solutions? 
    How protracted would the slowdown be? Does it make sense for the industry to postpone their investment? Would the government's continued emphasis on investment in infrastructure keep domestic capital formation going strong, feeding growth? 
    All these questions do not have definitive answers, true enough. But thinkers and doers of the global economy would have insights to offer that would benefit ET's readers. Only a few of them would be able to get together at the Capital's Taj Mahal hotel on September 24 for firsthand insights. But Team ET will make sure that those who could not make it to the event would not lose out on its substantive findings.

THE GROUP OF 8: (Back: l-r) Indra Nooyi, Peter Sands,Anshu Jain, Deepak Parekh & Kumar Birla (Front: l-r) Harish Manwani,Azim Premji & Sunil Mittal

Princess Margaret  - "I have as much privacy as a goldfish in a bowl."