India set to beat the Dragon in growth rate

Export-dependent China posts lower GDP rise at 6.8%

Shantanu Nandan Sharma NEW DELHI

CALL it the brighter side of the current downturn. India may pip export-dependent China in the last quarter of FY09 and emerge as the fastest growing nation among all large economies. As China's GDP growth rate dropped to 6.8% during the October-December quarter and is expected to go down further, the Indian government has become hyper-active to achieve at least a 6.5% growth in Q4 to register a win over China.
    If India achieves a better growth rate than China even for one quarter, the message will go across to the world and help India in wooing foreign capital, waiting to chase growth stories. Already, government officials in India have been highlighting reports of a few investment analysts who doubted China's official GDP numbers and claimed that it could just be in the positive territory in the last quarter.
    A secretary in the government of India confirmed to SundayET that India has a brighter chance of overtaking China in the last quarter of FY09, or Q1 in case of China which follows the calendar year. "China is heavily dependent on exports and the way things are unfolding China's GDP for January-March quarter would be quite low. We have so far achieved 7.9% and 7.6% growth in the first two quarters, according to the provisional numbers. Though our Q3 number, to be announced by month end, is expected to be less than the comparable number in China (6.8% in Oct-Dec, 08), the softening of interest rates will stimulate demand and ensure a faster growth rate than China in Q4," he said.
    Though the Chinese economy grew at 9% during 2008, down from the revised 13% growth rate in 2007, the last quarter number (6.8%) has made the Indian authorities hopeful that India might be able to pip China in GDP growth. As China's export constitutes 37% of its economy against 13% in the case of India, the recession in the developed world will make China suffer the most.
    PM's economic advisory council (EAC) member Satish C Jha said he won't be surprised if India grew faster than China. "The situation in China is worse than us. Exports are drastically coming down and China is hit hard. Our economy is driven more by domestic demand and our rural economy is much more resilient than that of China. If our stimulus packages are implemented properly, I won't be surprised if India pips China in GDP growth," Mr Jha said.
    shantanu.sharma@timesgroup.com 

Vision India 2014

Elections are a good time to look back and look ahead. It has been that both the last two governments have completed their terms. So, India 1999 is what we can remember, as also India 2004. And now we are at India 2009. Looking ahead, what do we want India 2014 to be like? Five years is a long time for change to happen.

As a tech entrepreneur, for me, one of the disappointments of the past 5 (perhaps, even 10) years has been the slow penetration of the wireline Internet and broadband in our lives. That's one thing I'd like to see change in the next five years. On the flip side, the amazing growth in mobiles has been a great success story - even though we keep playing with the telecom policy every so often. But what we have seen so far is only the voice revolution. The data revolution (powered by 3G, 4G and broadband) is yet to arrive in India.

Three questions for you to think and answer:

• What do you think is the biggest change from India 2004 to India 2009?
• What has been the biggest disappointment of the past five years?
• What is the Big Change you'd like to see from India 2009 to India 2014?