Friday, January 31, 2014

USUAL REVISION Govt revises FY13 GDP growth to 4.5% from 5%


New Delhi: The government on Friday revised downwards economic growth for 2012-13 to 4.5% from the previous 5% due to sluggish performance of farming, manufacturing sectors and a decline in mining activity, raising fresh concerns about the health of the economy. 
    The growth is the slowest in a decade and is expected to pile more pressure on the UPA coalition as it heads into general elections later in the year. 
    While the growth is expected to revive in the current fiscal, critics are likely to sharpen their attack on the government over its handling of the economy. 
    The economy expanded at its slowest pace of 4% in 2002-03. Slowing growth and 
high inflation have added to the anxiety and upset household budgets. Weak industrial growth has added to the woes. The statistics office also revised upwards the growth for 2011-12 to 6.7% from the previously reported 6.2%, while growth for 2010-11 was revised downwards to 8.9% from 9.3%. 
    Economists cautioned that the new set of numbers on growth do not ring in fresh panic as they would be revised in the months with more data available. The government revises data periodically as more information trickles. 
    “It is clear that the slowdown in growth momentum is strong and there is no indication of any quick recov
ery, but nothing much should be read from this set of numbers as these will eventually be revised again, likely upwards. These numbers should not trigger any new panic,” said Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist at Barclays. 
    Growth has consistently slowed after the spectacular expansion of over 9% before the 2008 global financial crisis. Factors like slowing global growth, delay in regulatory approvals, policy paralysis, high interest rates and stubborn inflation have hit the economy. 
    Growth is expected to be around 5% in the current fiscal, and economists estimate the economy to bounce back in 2014-15 on the back of a revival in exports, farm sector and the impact of approvals to stalled projects.

US downgrades India's aviation safety ranking

New Delhi: The Centre’s continued failure to strengthen the aviation safety oversight mechanism has led to the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) downgrading India’s safety ranking in the skies. After this first-ever downgrade on Friday, India is now among 11 category II countries with weak aviation regulatory agencies. In the same bracket as India are, among others, Bangladesh, Barbados, Ghana, Nicaragua and Sint Maarten, a Caribbean island nation of 37,000 people. 

    As a result of the international embarrassment, caused mainly by a severe shortage of technical staff in the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), Indian carriers that fly to the US—Air India and Jet Airways—will not be able to add any more flights on the sector or have a new destination city in the US. Also, American authorities can now hold up Indian aircraft for checks, delaying flights. 
    The downgrade does not mean Indian carriers are unsafe to fly. It is a result of the fact that the Centre failed to strengthen the DGCA so as to have an effective eye on air traffic that grew here by leaps and bounds after 2005, when low-cost carriers started mushrooming. 
    Also, the soured Indo-US relationship after the Devyani Khobragade visa incident are being blamed for the FAA action. 
US downgrade may push air fares up 
New Delhi: With the US Federal Aviation Administration downgrading India to category II, its airlines — and passengers flying them — are bound to suffer the most. As on Friday, the FAA ranked 88 countries, with 77 of them, including Pakistan and Fiji, being in the top category I. 
    Other countries may now express doubts over Indian carriers’ safety record and insist on coming here for checks. Recently, Japan and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) had insisted on auditing the DGCA, but India had rejected their demand. Turning down such requests — which are bound to increase — will be tough following this downgrade. The increased risk perception will push up insurance underwriting rates for airlines and the same will be recovered from passengers through higher fares. 
    Aviation minister Ajit Singh expressed hope that India will soon get its top safety ranking back. “The FAA audited DGCA last December and found 33 issues with it. As of now, only two of those issues are unresolved-—hiring of technical people and airworthiness of aircraft through route-proving flights. All this will be done by Marchend. After that nothing will be left and we hope to be back in category I. The FAA move is disappointing and surprising given the fact we had addressed most of their concerns,” Singh said. 
    The US regulator, while downgrading DGCA, said, “The FAA has determined that India, at this time, is not in compliance with the international standards for aviation safety oversight.” The FAA, however, acknowledged the steps taken by India in the past few days—like creating posts for 75 flight operations inspectors who will be hired at market rates.

AS officer's son tipped to be Microsoft's global CEO Hyderabad-Born 46-Year-Old Is A 22-Yr MS 'Insider'

Washington/Bangalore/New Delhi/Hyderabad: Hyderabad -born Satya Nadella, son of an IAS officer who was secretary to former Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao, is being tipped strongly to become chief executive of Microsoft, according to several news outlets citing sources familiar with deliberations on the matter. 

    Nadella, 46, is a 22-year Microsoft insider who now heads the company’s $20-billion cloud and enterprise group. If the Microsoft board, which has been searching for a successor to current CEO Steve Ballmer for nearly five months, goes through with his appointment, he will be the topranked chief executive of Indian-origin, comfortably overtaking Indra Nooyi of 
Pepsico. An announcement is expected as early as Friday. 

    Microsoft is currently the world’s fourth-largest company by market cap ($312 billion) after Apple ($450bn), Exxon Mobil ($405bn) and Google ($394bn); Pepsico’s is way behind at $124bn. 
    Nadella grew up in Hyderabad. His father, B N Yugandhar, went on to become a Planning Commission member, and friends recollect him as “a jholawala, a man with an NGO mindset.” 
    Nadella studied at the Hyderabad Public School, Begumpet, the alma mater of other global business bigwigs like Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe Systems, and Prem Watsa, chairman and CEO of Fairfax Financial Holdings, who’s known as Canada’s Warren Buffet. He did his engineering from Manipal University between 1984 and 1988, and then went to the US where he received a degree in computer science and an MBA. 

WINDOWS OPEN FOR SATYA NADELLA 
Born in 1967 in Hyderabad, studied at Hyderabad Public School, Begumpet 
Engineering in electronics and communication from Manipal University 
MS in computer science from University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee 
MBA from University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business 
Started his tech career at Sun Microsystems, joined Microsoft Corporation in February 1992 
First MS assignment was as program manager for Windows Developer Relations Group 
Now, executive VP, cloud and enterprise, a $20-billion business at the $78-billion Microsoft 
Nadella’s strength is the variety of roles he’s played in MS, his weakness is in consumer space 
    Satya Nadella worked briefly with Sun Microsystems, before joining Microsoft in 1992. At Microsoft, he has worked in a variety of businesses, from core enterprise products to online services including Bing, MSN and the cloud platform Azure. 
    He is part of a large contingent of Indians, numbering in the thousands, who joined Microsoft in the 1990s, leading former honcho Bill Gates to look at India as both a research hub and a market after he recognized the country's potential on both counts. 
Microsoft’s Hyderabad campus is now the company's largest non-US-base. The company has nearly 5,000 employees in India out of its 100,000-strong workforce. 
    The variety of roles Nadella has played is now proving to be his strength. Ashlee Vance of Bloomberg BusinessWeek writes that Nadella is one of the most impressive members of the new bunch of senior executives he has seen 
at Microsoft. “Crucially, he’s more or less Microsoft’s cloud master and has a firm handle on what it takes to run Bing, Office365, Skype, and Xbox Live. Nadella is also well-liked and respected throughout the industry. And he’s enough of a different character from Steve Ballmer and Bill Gates to inject some new life into the company,” he says. 
    That’s something Microsoft desperately needs. Once the undisputed king of the computing world, the company has lost a lot of ground over the past decade to companies like Google and Apple on account of its failure to anticipate the revolutionary changes that the internet and mobile devices have 
been ringing in. 
    The company is now making moves away from its roots as a software maker to focus on hardware and internetbased services. In some areas it has made good progress, such as the cloud platform Azure and to a lesser extent the cloud-based office productivity tools. But in the crucial area of mobile devices, Nadella has a huge task on his hands, and it’s not an area he has much experience with. Less than 2% of smartphones are Windows-based. 
    Microsoft acquired Nokia’s mobile business recently to try and do a leapfrog in this space. Patrick Moorhead, president at Moor Insights & Strategy and a veter
an of the computer industry, says Nadella may face a challenging time in fixing Microsoft's problems in the consumer space. 
    “Nadella has a lot of experience, but not as much as someone who typically runs a company of the size of Microsoft. He has spent most of his time in the enterprise space, so I think he would need a very strong lieutenant who gets the consumer market,” Moorhead told TOI. 
    Vance appears to agree: “What Nadella is not is the radical agent of change or the inspirational visionary that some investors and outsiders have been hoping for. He seems likely to keep pushing on Microsoft’s data center-focused cloud journey and unlikely to take any drastic mea
sures around consumer products.” 
    If indeed Nadella is the chosen one, everybody would be keenly watching to see the steps he takes to get back the consumer mindshare that Microsoft has lost to Apple and Google.




Friday, January 10, 2014

Industrial output falls 2.1% in Nov

New Delhi: Industrial production contracted for the second consecutive month, falling 2.1% in November, as manufacturing activity slumped, raising concerns of a prolonged slowdown. The latest data has raised a fresh dilemma for the Reserve Bank of India which is due to take a call on interest rates later this month. 

    While mining and electricity managed to stay in positive territory, a 3.5% decline in manufacturing output meant that the overall index of industrial production stayed in the red, latest data released by the Central Statistics Office on Friday showed. 
    What will come as a bigger worry is that compared to October 2013, production across factories and power utilities was lower in November, resulting in a month-on-month decline in IIP. "This reinforces the belief that fall in manufacturing growth has not yet bottomed out. Urgent measures and fresh
thoughts are required to boost manufacturing, without which the jobs potential here will remain depressed," Ficci president Sidharth Birla said in a statement. 
    Given the bleak forecast, even Yes Bank managing director and CEO Rana Kapoor said that a prolonged slow
down will adversely hit employment. 
    Economists do not expect industrial activity to pick up immediately. "The slowdown in the industrial sector is coming to an end, but we expect a prolonged bottoming out process as there are no visible triggers for an up-cycle at this stage. Even if industrial production growth rebounds back to positive in December, industrial production growth will be negative in Q4 of 2013, suggest
ing that GDP growth is likely to moderate in the fourth quarter after the rise in the third quarter, despite better agriculture growth," Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aman Mohunta said in a note. 
    Ratings and research firm Crisil too predicted tepid growth in the remainder of 2013-14, citing infrastructure and input constraints and weak domestic demand.



Food prices fall globally, but keep rising in India

New Delhi: When it comes to slower economic growth, the government never fails to point out the problems in the global economy but there seems to be little link between Indian and international food prices. 

    Latest data released by the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization shows that the Food Price Index fell 3.5% in December 2013, compared to a year ago. For the full year, the index averaged 209.9, which was 1.6% lower than 2012, the Rome-based agency said. In November 2013, the Food Price Index fell 4.4%. 
    While the government will release the consumer and wholesale price inflation numbers next week, food inflation based on the WPI was estimated at close to 20% in November 2013. By all accounts, with vegetable prices coming down in December, food inflation is expected to moderate but there is no way it is going into low double-digits, at least at the moment. 
    High rate of inflation, especially for food products, has been identified as a key reason for the Congress's drubbing in the recent state elections. High inflation and low growth in recent years have emerged as a major headache for households. At his press conference 
last week, prime minister Manmohan Singh had put much of the blame on the global economy and international commodity prices. 
    Barring dairy products, where there has been a spurt in prices in recent months, internationally prices of other food groups tracked by FAO remain subdued. In fact, sugar and cereal prices slumped significantly in December, while meat stayed
flat and vegetable oil was 1.4% more expensive in November and 2.8% costlier in December, the FAO said. 
    The high demand for milk powder, especially from China, has prompted processors to focus on it, ignoring butter and cheese, which has resulted in high price for dairy products. 
    Prices of cereals are at their lowest level since August 2010 as good wheat and maize harvests have kept prices subdued. It is the government's decision to hold on to record public stocks that has resulted in high prices in India. 

Times View: Those who grew up in India in the seventies and early eighties would remember how the 'foreign hand' would frequently be invoked by Indira Gandhi to explain away political turmoil and strife. Of late, we have been seeing an economic variant of the mantra with the government always keen to blame the 'external environment' for the country's woes. As this report shows, some of the most pressing economic problems we face have little to do with the global situation. The government would do better to focus on tackling problems that are homegrown rather than lamenting those beyond its control.



AAP aims at 1 crore members by Jan 26

New Delhi: The AAP launched a massive volunteer recruitment drive on Friday. Chief minister Arvind Kejriwal who is also the party convener, said that the party is aiming at induction of at least one crore people by January 26. He also said that the membership fee of Rs 10 has now been waived off completely. 

    Within three hours of announcing this, almost 50,000 people had joined AAP across India. "The option of joining the party online has been given this time and 47,500 people became members through online registration. Another 1,950 became members through the phone service," said party sources. Till January 7, the party had a membership of almost 2 lakh and a volunteer base of just over 7 lakh. More than half of these people joined the party after the declaration of assembly election results in Delhi on December 8 last year. "Till December 8, the party had 27,632 members and 2.47 lakh volunteers. In the one month after declaration of results, 1.65 lakh people joined as members and another 4.64 lakh as volunteers. We are quite confident of touching the one crore mark in the next few weeks," said sources. 
    The 'mein bhi aam aadmi' drive was launched on Wednesday by Kejriwal with the release of a phone number on which people can register. Senior party member Gopal Rai said that people could register by either calling on this number or messaging on 
it. Even missed calls on the number would be responded to but only one member will be accepted on one mobile number. "Other than the phone number, people can register online. The form is available on the party website and it can be downloaded and copied. Volunteers can distribute these forms by going door to door or organizing camps. Those who do not have mobile phones can join the party by giving their voter ID information but that will start after January 17," said Rai. 
    The party was almost entirely dependent on its volunteers and members for its campaign in Delhi. With limited funds and the need to involve as many people in its movement as possible, the party is aiming to induct several lakhs before the Lok Sabha elections. It did away with the membership fee while also admitting that it was not administratively equipped to deal with this influx of people.


Tuesday, January 7, 2014

ON THE RISE AGAIN India Inc earnings to hit six-quarter high in Q3

 India Inc is expected to post its best earnings growth in six quarters in the October-December (third) quarter of the current financial year on the back of a strong performance by export-oriented sectors and a low base. 

    Profit after tax (PAT) of companies on the benchmark sensex is set to increase 13% year-on-year (y-o-y) to around Rs 55,000 crore during the quarter, estimates made by leading brokerages showed. PAT growth is expected to accelerate to 16% y-o-y in the fourth quarter (January-March) as earnings slowly move up to levels seen during the boom years. Though India Inc's PAT growth will still be lower than the heady 25%-plus increase seen between 2002-03 and 2007-08, it would be closer to the average of the past 10 years. 
    While growth was concentrated among a few sectors in the previous quarters, several 
sectors are expected to register gradual improvement in growth rates from the third quarter. "Downgrades to sensex EPS (earnings per share) have taken a breather," an analyst at Motilal Oswal Securities (MOSL) said. 
    The growth trend emerging from the quarterly results suggest that the worst may be over for India Inc in terms of earnings. After a 3% y-o-y degrowth in PAT in the quarter ending June 2013, profits at 143 companies covered by MOSL grew 8% y-o-y in the following quarter. 
    PAT growth is expected to 
be 10% y-o-y for these firms during the quarter ending December 2013. But this is still lower than the long-term average growth of 14%. Only around a third of these firms are expected to report a decline in PAT — the lowest level in 11 quarters. 
    "The worst is over for most of the sectors. The earnings are likely to be above expectations, especially in IT and commodity-related businesses," said Vikram Dhawan, director, Equentis Capital. Deven R Choksey, MD, KR Choksey Shares and Securities, said, "The earnings for the third quarter will be better." 
    Telecom, cement and automobiles sectors are expected to report growth after several quarters of decline. In fact, telecom, cement, media, real estate and retail are likely to emerge as the sectors logging the highest growth. 
    Sensex firms are likely to report 13% y-o-y increase in sales to around Rs 5 lakh crore.


Citizens can call for blood from today Free Hi-Tech Ambulances To Be Launched In A Month

Mumbai: The Blood on Call scheme will be rolled out in Mumbai and the rest of the state on Tuesday when chief minister Prithviraj Chavan inaugurates the project at Sir J J Metropolitan blood bank. The public health department has been carrying out pilot projects in Satara and Sindhudurg over the past year. 

    As part of its plan to enhance healthcare facilities in the state, the government also looks to launch a free emergency ambulance service within a month with the first 50 high-tech ambulances, fitted with advanced equipment, being ready to hit the road. 
    After the launch of the blood scheme, patients' families will no longer have to run helter-skelter, looking for the right group. They can simply dial 104 and place an order. A call centre will alert the nearest district blood bank to deliver the blood. Each bottle will cost Rs 450; for delivery within 10 km, an extra Rs 50 will be charged and for 11 to 40 km, the amount will be Rs 100. The health department promises that the blood will reach within an hour of a request being placed. The state has also notified private hospitals that it is mandatory for them to be part of the scheme. They will have to register with their district blood banks. 
    With the ambulance service, the government aims to offer medical help to accident victims and other critical patients in the crucial "golden hour". "A total of 972 hi-tech 
ambulances will be part of the emergency medical service. We already have 50 ambulances ready and another 150 is expected by month-end. We plan to launch the scheme by January-end or by mid-February. The health department plans to exhibit the ambulances at the Republic Day parades," health minister Suresh Shetty told TOI. 
    But Thane and Navi Mumbai will have to wait a little longer as the launch is planned in Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur and a few rural areas first. 
    According to a senior health department official, over 230 ambulances will have advanced life-support facilities and doctors onboard, who will administer emergency treatment. "The hi-tech ambulances will have enhanced equipment to treat cardiac and other critical pa
tients. For instance, these ambulances will be fitted with a defibrillator, a device used to counteract fibrillation (irregular contraction) of the heart muscle," the official added. The rest of the ambulances will have basic life-support facilities but those equipment will be far more advanced than those found on regular ambulances. "By March, all 972 ambulances, with advanced as well as basic lifesupport systems, will be on roads," Shetty said. 
    About the private ambulance tariff dispute, Shetty claimed most of the problem will be solved once the emergency medical services are rolled out. "Why would citizens call for private ambulances, when they would have the option of getting hi-tech government ambulances for free?" the minister said. 

HEALTHCARE ON WHEELS 

    972 ambulances will be launched in the state under emergency medical services (EMS) 

    Among those, 230 ambulances will have advanced lifesupport system, while the rest will have basic lifesupport facilities. But even the basic facilities will include health equipment that are not found on regular ambulances 
The high-tech ambulances will have equipment to treat cardiac as well as other critical patients. For instance, they will be fitted with a defibrillator, a device used to counteract rapid contraction of the heart muscle and treat cardiac patients. Even doctors will be present on these ambulances who will be able to administer initial and emergency treatment 
HELPLINE | 108



Sunday, January 5, 2014

State’s population grew 16% in 2001-11, cars 158% But Experts Say Better Public Transport Crucial Before Any Deterrents

The transport department's move to levy a higher tax on every second car a family buys in Mumbai is prompted by the exponential growth in vehicles on the city's roads, but experts caution that a deterrent can only follow an improvement in the quality of the city's public transport. 

    Rishi Aggarwal of Mumbai Transport Forum, an alliance of active citizens working towards sustainable transport solutions, believes it is essential for the state to step up its public transport before it begins resorting to deterrent measures such as high taxes. "A lot of people using cars today use the justifiable argument that they can't get into overcrowded local trains or non-AC public buses. We need to give people 
high quality choices in public transport before we deter them from bringing their cars out on the road," he said. 
    Transport expert Ashok Datar believes the state and Mumbai in particular, definitely needs measures to limit the number of cars on its streets. "We have limited resources in terms of road space and the exponential rise of cars vis-à-vis the population warrants measures such as increasing taxes, in principle," he says. He however, believes the devil will lie in the detail to determine whether such a tax would actually be effective in deterring people from buying more cars. 
    Maharashtra has not only registered the highest number of vehicles every year in the country in the decade since 2001, but has also added a staggering one crore cars in that period. The state's vehicular population has grown by 158% in the period from 2001 to 2011, while its population has correspondingly grown by only 16%. 
    Measures limiting vehicular population are in force the world over. Singapore for instance, levies a road tax equivalent to 120% of the car price on every new purchase. It also issues only a limited number of licence plates every year. Shanghai and Beijing too levy a similarly hefty road tax. 

TIMES VIEW : The state government's move to hike the motor vehicles tax by 200% for families planning to buy a second car is unfair, and Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan's argument that the rise in the number of cars on city roads is due to easy availability of car loans and good salaries in the IT sector is deeply flawed. The rise may have to do more with the greater freedom that women justly enjoy. Increasingly, in Indian families, two cars are needed because both husband and wife lead independent professional lives. To discourage women in the family from having their own cars by placing curbs in the shape of higher taxes is to turn the clock back.



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