‘Low conviction rate spurring sexual assault cases in India’

In 2011, Only 25% Men Accused Of Rape Found Guilty

    Sexual assaults on women across the country increased by 25% in the six years to 2011 and a significant contributory cause of the alarming trend, legal experts believe, was the low conviction rate in rape cases. 
    According to data collated by the National Crime Records Bureau, 19,348 instances of rape were recorded in India in 2006. By the year 2008, the figure rose to 21,467, and by the year 2011, it was 24,206. This 25% rise in six years, legal experts assert, assumes more disturbing shades, given the poor conviction rate in sexual assault cases. 
    Last year, across India, the police filed chargesheets in nearly 94% of the incidents of rape but, separately, convictions were achieved in just 25% of the rape cases pending before courts. Compared to this, the police filed chargesheets in 85% of murder cases and convictions were realized in 40% of such trials before the judiciary. 
    This considerable variation puzzles legal eagles. They point out that the filing of a chargesheet means the police have thoroughly investigated a crime; it also signifies that law-enforcers have a prima facie case, with strong evidence, to establish that the accused person committed the offence. Why is it then, lawyers ask, that the police case so often falls apart when the trial starts in court? How are teams of defence lawyers so frequently able to punch holes in police contentions, eventually securing freedom for their clients? 
    "The police must ensure that they file the chargesheet as far as possible within the stipulated time limit of 90 days. Equally importantly, they should ensure that the evidence, gathered scientifically, is incontestable," said human rights lawyer Mihir Desai. 
    In Mumbai, a Right to Information Act (RTI) query revealed that between 2001 and 2010 there were approximately 400 unsolved murder cases and around 115 unsolved cases of sexual assault. 
    Activist Jeetendra Ghadge, who filed the RTI application, said, "The main problem is that, due to the abysmal conviction rates, there is no fear of law among criminals. A recent example of this was the sexual assault on a Spanish expatriate in the city. The accused there was out on bail for 10 different crimes involving break-ins." 
    When cases are not solved over a prolonged period, Ghadge said, the police can close them by filing 'A' summary reports. But when they make such a decision in a rape case, he continued, cops forget that they are deepening the trauma of the victim and leaving multitudes of women exposed to the unidentified sexual assaulter. 
    Women's activist and lawyer Flavia Agnes said her NGO Majlis has undertaken a study of rape cases in Mumbai and will soon compile data on convictions and acquittals. "The aim of the study is to examine actual cases that were tried, identify the loopholes in the system and find ways to plug them. This would help the prosecution in conducting better trials in future," explained Agnes. "The data and material gathered so far shows a very low conviction rate in rape cases." 
    In Maharashtra, the overall conviction rate stood at less than 9% in 2011. For this too, legal experts blame the poor coordination between the police machinery and prosecutors. 
    In an effort to bring in some change, the state government set up a committee two years ago. The panel recommended weekly meetings between police officers and prosecutors during investigations and later monthly meetings between senior policemen and prosecutors. The idea, unfortunately for the state, is yet to take root. 
TERRIBLE SHAME FOR SOCIETY DAMAGING THE CAUSE 
The low conviction rate in rape cases is owed to several reasons, primary among them being police ineptness. Lawyers say the men in khaki often fail to collect evidence properly, enfeebling the prosecution's case in court: 
Forensic evidence is vital in rape trials. That is why rules unambiguously state the procedures for evidence collection and analysis. Police are mandated to follow a process for custody and storage of samples of vaginal swabs, skin and other agents—but they seldom do. This disregard of rules causes trouble for the prosecution and frequently leads to acquittal of the accused 
Police do not get the victim's medical examination conducted in time. The delay leads to flawed results and erasure of cogent evidence, such as presence of semen 
Chargesheets are often filed late despite the 90-day deadline. To curb this trend, lawyers say, errant cops should be suspended and punished if they fail to provide suitable reasons for the delay 
Given the frequent bungling by cops, legal eagles suggest appointment of special prosecutors for rape trials to ensure that the evidence gathered by policemen in such cases is incontestable and incontrovertible 
Trial courts are occasionally faced with a peculiar situation. As the trial gets drawn out due to judicial backlog, the victim's statement at times slightly diverges from that recorded in the FIR or before a magistrate. Lawyers recommend fasttracking rape trials—even establishment of a 60-day deadline—to avert this setback and to ensure that the victim's trauma is not played out in court for a prolonged period 
A major requirement in cases of sexual assault is sensitivity. Victims have to recount the trauma in court (even in an in-camera trial) for the judge. That is why, experts insist, it is imperative that prosecutors handle the victims with extreme sensitivity

Home NaMo Sweepaya Gujarat Wants Modi, But Does He Want Only Gujarat? His Big Hat-Trick In State Will Fuel Ambitions Of Going National. Will It Be Rahul Vs Modi In 2014?

"You should now get used to hearing me speak in Hindi," Narendra Modi told the adulatory droves, gathered to celebrate his emphatic victory, when they insisted that he speak in Gujarati. 

    The sudden switch to Hindi for someone who spoke in little else but Gujarati throughout the election campaign led to an obvious interpretation—Modi, having scored a hat-trick, was now flashing his fortified claim to be the BJP's choice for prime minister in 2014, setting the stage for a presidentialtype race with Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha polls. 
    Although Modi said he did not plan to camp in New Delhi and would visit the capital only for a day on December 27 for the National Development Council meet, his devotees were already serenading him with "desh ka neta kaisa ho, Narendra bhai jaisa ho" chants. 
    Modi won 115 seats, just a couple short of his previous tally of 117 seats in the 2007 election. Modi's victory came against the backdrop of indifference, even opposition, from a section of the RSS, hostility of an influential and tenacious faction of civil society and the Congress's tacit understanding with BJP rebel Keshubhai Patel who sought to rally his community against the chief minister. 
DECODING THE WIN 
Tireless Campaigner | Modi addressed 250 rallies and reached out to 180 more locations through 3D projections. Sonia Gandhi addressed 7 and Rahul Gandhi 8 election meetings 
Sweeps Urban Seats | Delimitation increased urban seats. BJP won 12 of 16 seats in Ahmedabad, all 12 in Surat, and all 5 in Vadodara 
Safely Home | Modi was perturbed by the surging crowds of women a few months back when the Congress started distributing lakhs of forms to the homeless, promising them subsidized housing. But the results in seats with mainly poor neighbourhoods show the Congress was building castles in the air 
Sad-Bhavana | The last assembly had 5 Muslim MLAs, the new one will have only two, both from Cong. The BJP didn't give a ticket to any Muslim 
Turnout Works | The unusually high voter turnout of 71.9% was the key to the BJP's big win. This was almost 10% higher than in the previous two assembly polls. Modi told voters to come out and vote for him, not the candidates. The personality cult worked 
Caste Contours Change | Call it social engineering, Modi style. With Leuva Patels swinging away from the BJP, especially under Keshubhai's influence in Saurashtra, the OBCs consolidated around the BJP. This was seen as a reaction to the ganging up of the dominant Patels in the countryside 
Exchange Programme | Cong, BJP wrested 30 seats from each other. Cong gained in Saurashtra & N Gujarat, conceded seats to BJP in central and S Gujarat. 5 ministers lost their seats, but so did Guj Cong president Arjun Modhwadia 
Batting Failure | Armed with a 'bat' as an election symbol, 84-year-old Keshubhai padded up for a match with Modi but flattered to deceive. He retired hurt, scoring only two but managed to inflict some body blows in Saurashtra where the BJP slipped by nine seats 
Bharuch Breached | The Congress won no seat in Bharuch district, home turf of Sonia's political secretary Ahmed Patel. Of the five seats, the BJP won four and the JD(U) one. Modi targeted Patel by calling him Ahmed 'Miyan' Patel and mischievously claiming he was the Congress' CM candidate 
Pro-Incumbency | Modi's strategy every time he faced an election was to drop most of the candidates — a good way to fight anti-incumbency at the local level. As the rejects would have switched over to Keshubhai, he decided to repeat most of the candidates and coined the word pro-incumbency 
    Modi is the 13th politician to serve at least 3 consecutive terms as CM. 
Including him, there are 6 such CMs serving at present, including Tarun Gogoi (Assam), Naveen Patnaik (Odisha), Okram Ibobi Singh (Manipur), Manik Sarkar (Tripura) & Sheila Dikshit (Delhi) 
    Gujarat is one of 7 states where Cong has been out of power for at least 20 years. The others are Bihar, Sikkim, Tripura, TN, UP and Bengal (barring a brief stint as junior coalition partner with Trinamool). These 7 states together account for 230 Lok Sabha seats

2002, 2007, 2012...2014? WILL MODI BE BJP'S POSTER BOY IN THE NEXT LOK SABHA POLLS?

For Election Riches, UPA Plans Houses for the Poor

The government plans to launch an ambitious housing scheme to woo the urban poor, ahead of the next general elections. 

The housing and urban poverty alleviation ministry has tapped several central ministries and agencies to prepare a comprehensive package, which will include building high-rise apartments for the urban poor on land owned by central agencies such as the railways and defence; doing away with the cap of . 80,000 on home loans under the JNNURM scheme; incentivising construction of homes for the poor; and making it mandatory for builders to reserve 35% of houses in any housing complex for economically weaker sections and lower income groups under the Rajiv Awas Yojana. Looking at Ways to Reclaim the Urban Voters 
"Consultations with various arms of the government are on. This will be another game-changer as millions of poor will benefit," said Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation Minister Ajay Maken. This move comes in the run-up to the next general elections. Congress had done very well in the urban areas in the 2009 elections, but the government's image has been severely hit by corruption scandals and the perception that it has not done enough in the last few years. A string of defeats suffered by the party in the civic polls of Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore and other cities post-2009 has worried its leadership, which is looking at ways to reclaim the urban vote. The party had launched the 'Ghar Nu Ghar' affordable housing scheme for women ahead of the Gujarat elections that saw nearly 28 lakh women sign up. "The queues in Gujarat showed us the appetite for affordable homes. Steep real estate prices and expensive loans have discouraged people from buying homes — by far the biggest investment in their lifetime," said a housing ministry official. Congress has decided to make the direct cash transfer scheme — a programme that gives the poor access to welfare scheme funds directly, using the electronically-enabled Aadhaar card — a major plank of its election strategy. The Food Security Bill and the Land Rehabilitation Bill are also expected to form a part of its election strategy. While housing for the urban poor is a vote-catching proposition, it is a state subject and the 12-18 months left before the next elections is too short a period for construction to happen. "We can't start constructing houses before polls, but we can launch the schemes," said Maken. The minister said the proposed package wasn't just a political move, and added that it was imperative for the government to provide housing for theurban poor. "We are talking about almost 50% of our population, of which 26% live in slums. I think we need to give them some good programmes and policies, which we are working through our re-christened Rajiv Awas Yojana.We are making a number of changes so that this scheme becomes more effective and meaningful." The government has calculated that there is a shortfall of 18.78 million homes in the country, mostly in the low-income category. The poor in India usually live in unregulated areas, especially slum developments in big cities such as Delhi and Mumbai. Delhi alone has more than 50,000 slums units on railway land and between 5,000 and 10,000 on defence properties. Maken's ministry has had a series of discussions with the railways and defence ministries. "We are looking at how, through Rajiv Awas Yojana, we can straightaway start with slum eradication or improvement of slums or housing in the central government agency areas," Maken said. In addition, the railways and defence establishments have huge tracts of surplus, unutilised land all over the country, especially in habitable regions, and the idea is to develop homes and colonies on them. The minister said the government had failed to achieve certain goals in the first phase of JNNURM. But the gaps will be plugged this time around to make it more relevant. For instance, an anomaly in the first phase of JNNURM was that under the Integrated Housing and Slum Development Programme (IHSDP), in small towns, the home loan limit was Rs 80,000 per house, which was too small. That is why many of the IHSDP programmes could not succeed. The government now plans to remove this artificial restriction on the amount in the second phase of Rajiv Awas Yojana and make loans available on actuals. "We would like to be more realistic and in terms of actuals, we would like to give 50% or 80% of the amount which would be spent," Maken said, adding he was expecting the Planning Commission to agree to this proposal. Also, in the Rajiv Awas Yojana, one of the mandatory conditions would be that 35% of the houses for any housing complex should be reserved for EWS and LIG. "This we want them to be over and above what has been given to them. We should give them extra FSI and also give transfer of development rights (TDR) to developers so that it incentivises the construction of EWS housing," Maken said. He also said the government will relax FSI norms in cities to allow vertical developments. "We feel that unless you are liberal with the FSI and population density norms, you can't have cities that would meet the housing needs of people, particularly the poor," said the minister.

POLL VAULT: Maken

Worst may be over for eco: Govt Growth Target Lowered But Review Sees Brighter Prospects In 2nd Half

New Delhi: The government on Monday suggested that the worst may be over for the faltering Indian economy and it is headed for a recovery in the second half of 2012-13. But the mid-year review of the economy presented in Parliament scaled down growth projection for the current fiscal year to 5.7-5.9% from the previous estimate of 7.6%, citing the slowdown in the previous quarters. 
    Even at the scaled down level, the government's estimate is more optimistic than what most economists and agencies have suggested. It is, however, inline with RBI's forecast of 5.7% growth in the current financial year. The optimistic assessment for the second half of the fiscal year was based on a rebound in industrial growth of 8.2% in October 2012, better corporate profit margins, moderation in inflation and better business expectations for the third quarter. "There are, however, reasons to believe that the slowdown has bottomed out and the economy is headed towards higher growth in the second half of 2012-13," the review said. 
    The finance ministry is also confident of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.3% of GDP for the current fiscal year despite challenges on raising Rs 30,000 crore from stake sales in state-run firms and slowdown in revenues."Given such an emerging scenario, it should be possible for the economy to improve the overall growth rate of GDP to around 5.7 to 5.9% for the year 2012-13. This would imply that the growth rate for the second half of the year 2012-13 would be close to around 6%," the review said in its outlook for Asia's third-largest economy. "To achieve this, both fiscal and monetary policies, however, would need to be supportive to sustain investor confidence. The government will also have to address the concerns relating to structural supply side bottlenecks," it said. 
    The review said the reform steps undertaken by the government and the fiscal consolidation roadmap should provide room for RBI to ease policy. The RBI will review monetary policy on Tuesday and a majority of economists say they expect the central bank to hold rates given sticky inflation. 
    The review defended the RBI's tight monetary policy in the previous months saying there were several risks to inflation. The review said a further moderation in inflation, likely to commence from the fourth quarter of the current year and together with benign global commodity prices, will also facilitate softening of the monetary policy stance of RBI. Inflation at the end of March 2013 is expected to moderate to 6.8-7% level, it added. The review said achieving the target of raising Rs 30,000 crore from disinvestment in 2012-13 would be a challenge given the present trend and prevailing scenario in the capital market but said efforts were on to fast-track stake sales. It said on the tax revenue side, the trend growth in the mid-year was lower than estimated and achieving targets would be difficult. 
    "While the targets may be achieved in taxes on income other than corporation tax and service tax, achieving targets in corporation tax on the direct tax side and customs and central excise duty on the indirect tax side is somewhat difficult given the trend so far," the review said, attributing it to slower economic growth and the global economic slowdown.

Hat-trick? Exit polls predict landslide victory for Modi Dead Heat In HP With Edge For Congress

    Narendra Modi is all set for an enviable hat-trick. If exit polls have got it right, Modi is poised to record a thumping win in the assembly elections in Gujarat, possibly by a two-thirds majority, 

setting the stage for him to make a virtually undeniable claim to lead the BJP — and the NDA—in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. 
    In Himachal Pradesh, the pollsters predict a photo-finish with the Congress perhaps just a touch ahead. Only one poll gives the Congress a clear lead. The results of the Gujarat and Himachal polls will be announced on Thursday. 
    In the four exit polls for which projections were available on Gujarat, the BJP's estimated tally ranges between 118 and 140 in the 182-member assembly. Even the lowest projection, therefore, puts the party within touching distance of 121 seats—the number required for a two-thirds majority, and higher than the BJP's 2007 tally of 117. All the polls also seem to agree that Keshubhai Patel's GPP, seen by some as a potential spoiler in these elections, has come a cropper. 
    The ABP News-Nielsen poll projects 126 seats for the BJP, 50 for the Congress and only two for the GPP. The remaining four are picked up by 'others'. In the same ballpark are two other polls. The one done for Aaj Tak and Headlines Today by ORG says the BJP will win between 118 and 128 seats, the Congress 50-56, the GPP one or two and others between four and six. The CVoter poll projects 120 seats for the BJP, 58 for the Congress and two each for GPP and others. Can Cong pull it off in HP? T he News24-Chanakya Today poll gives Narendra Modi an even more comprehensive sweep. It predicts a tsunami of a wave for Modi, giving him 140 seats against just 40 for the Congress and two for others. It does not give a specific figure for the GPP. 
    While the CNN-IBN-CSDS post-poll survey has also made some projections for Gujarat, they are confined to those seats that polled in the first phase of the elections on December 13. Even in these, the indications are that the BJP will do very well and come back to power, giving Modi three wins on the trot. 
    In Himachal, there were three polls available and two of them suggest an extremely close race. The CNN-IBN-CSDS post-poll survey projects a dead heat with both the Congress and the BJP winning between 29 and 35 seats in a 68-member House. The CVoter poll gives the Congress 34, exactly half the strength of the House and the BJP 31, leaving three 'others' perhaps holding the balance. 
    Once again, the News24-Chanakya Today poll is a bit of an outlier with the Congress projected to win 40 seats and the BJP just 23, others picking up the remaining five. While the polls have indicated varying margins of error, this makes little difference to the big picture in Gujarat: Modi's triumphant re-election.

FINGERS CROSSED

Dissolvable stents to be sold in India

Mumbai:Cardiac patients across India will soon have a new option while seeking treatment for their hearts. Within the next 10 days, they can ask for a bio-absorbable stent, which will completely disappear some 18-odd months after it's fixed in their blocked blood vessel. At present, metallic stents that permanently stay in the blood vessel are the most-sought-after treatment for cardiac diseases.      The bio-absorbable stent's upcoming commercial launch follows an approval given by the Drug Controller General of India to multinational firm Abbott Vascular after a review of the results of a trial, involving 100 patients. "The patients were doing well during a six-month follow-up. The results are as good as metallic stents," said the trial's Delhi-based principal investigator Dr Ashok Seth.      Each of these stents will cost around Rs 3 lakh. Soluble stents mark the 'dawning of a new era'  However, The Treatment For Blocked Blood Vessels Comes With A Price Tag. Each Stent Will Cost Rs 2.8L to Rs 3L      The new bio-absorbable stent, which can dissolve completely after some 18-odd months in the blood vessel, is set to revolutionize the treatment of cardiac problems in India. However, the bio-absorbale stent comes with a premium price tag.      "It will cost Rs 2.85 to 3 lakh for each stent, and the entire hospitalization may cost a patient over Rs 4 lakh for a single stent," said a hospital administrator. In contrast, imported drug-coated permanent metallic stents cost Rs 1.3 lakh each.      Senior cardiologist Dr A B Mehta, of Jaslok Hospital, said, "The absorbable stent may only be used for a few  wealthy people in the city." However, Seth added, "We are still negotiating the cost with the company, because the absorbable stent will be beyond the reach of the common man in India."      But experts said there is no denying that the absorbable stent is an evolution.     "It's the dawning of a new era. From using balloons in the 1970s, we have now evolved to using absorbable stents," said Dr Ganesh Kumar, of Hiranandani Hospital, Powai. He said the bioabsorbable device, in fact, should be called a scaffolding and not a stent. "A stent is a permanent metallic device, while this one will dissolve completely within two years," he added.      Experts list three major advantages of the absorbable scaffolding. "There is no question of stent thrombosis (clotting) because the scaffolding dissolves," said Mehta.      Seth said the biggest advantage of the bio-absorbable stent is that patients will not need to take two anti-platelet (blood-thinning) medicines for years on end.      City-based cardiologist V T Shah said patients will need to take two blood-thinners till the scaffolding dissolves. "Thereafter, they will need to take only one for up to two years," he added. Long-term studies will show whether the blood thinners need to be taken at all in the long run.      At present, patients with regular metallic stents can never be asked to stop taking their blood thinners for fear of some clotting occurring in the stent.      "So the patients w i t h stents w h o need to undergo another operation in the future, such as knee-replacement surgery or dental implants, are at risk of excessive bleeding. They cannot risk stopping taking the blood thinners," said Shah.      The bio-absorbable stent, or scaffolding, may be the best invention for younger cardiac patients who require treatment in their 30s or 40s.      "The scaffolding will dissolve and doctors can use any mode of treatment in the future, even a cardiac bypass surgery," said Seth.

‘Scandal-hit’ city falls to new low as realty investment hub

Mumbai: The city's rating as a real estate investment destination has taken a further hit, and a "political scandal" is among the factors being blamed for it. Mumbai has dropped from No. 3 in 2011 to 

No. 20 on a list of 22 investment destinations covered by the Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific 2013, published by the Urban Land Institute and Price WaterhouseCoopers. The report was released on Tuesday. The city was already down at No. 15 in the 2012 report. 
    The study has attributed Mumbai's low ranking to a "recent political scandal" in the state which, it said, had paralysed development over the past year. It does not name the scandal, but it is believed to be referring to Adarsh, in which government officials, politicians and armymen have found themselves in the dock. 
Washington House is Lodha's for 342cr R ealty company Lodha Developer has finally acquired Washington House, the three-storey residential building owned by the US consulate on Altamont Road, for Rs 341.82 crore. P 2 EMERGING TRENDS REPORT 'Jakarta best city for realty investment' 
Mumbai: Not just "political scandal", Mumbai's fall as a real estate investment destination has been attributed to lack of transparency too. A Price WaterhouseCoopers official said transparency was another reason realty investments in Mumbai had come to a standstill when the BMC overhauled building rules to make them more stringent for unscrupulous developers who used to manipulate habitable and non-livable spaces in their buildings. 
    The Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific 2013 report quotes an investor, who said, "In a way, it has been a blessing in disguise as it has allowed the city to work out its oversupply problem." 
    Property valuations in Mumbai are unlikely to rebound until these issues are fully resolved, the report said. According to it, local developers are more "aggressive, and so, more stressed" because they appear willing to borrow money at expensive rates. "Mumbai is likely to be a good destination for opportunistic capital looking to leverage against developer stress,'' the report stated. 
    It's not jut Mumbai that has seen a dip in its ranking. Delhi has slipped from 5th slot in 2011 to No. 21, while Bangalore has 
tumbled from No. 10 in 2011 to No. 19 because of its "over-reliance" on the sluggish global IT industry. 
    According to the study, the top investment markets for 2013 are Jakarta, Shanghai, Singapore, Sydney and Kuala Lumpur. Jakarta has been described as a 'surprising' choice, given the city's lack of investment grade stock and its economy which, while growing, lacks the enterprise, scale and infrastructure of its more developed neighbours. However, it said the city was seen by real estate professionals as the most favourable emerging market in the region with business transactions being simpler and more transparent than in other markets like Vietnam. "Demand for property is strong, resulting in year-to-year office rents leaping by 29%," it said. Jakarta had been ranked a lowly 14th in 2011. 
    For the third year, Shanghai is at the number two position. "However, Shanghai is not as appealing to foreigners today as it was earlier. This is partly because markets have become saturated and Chinese regulators are now not as welcoming as they once were," it said. Although sales have dropped in the commercial sector, the city remains firmly on the radar for domestic buyers and many foreign funds with a mandate to invest in Chinese real estate.

M&M walkout gives govt LS win, RS will be tougher 261 MPs Opposed FDI, But Only 218 Voted Against It

New Delhi: It was again the same sort of numbers mismatch which has the opposition tearing its hair out after each trial of strength with the UPA. In the contest in the Lok Sabha on Wednesday over the desirability of allowing FDI in multi-brand retail, parties accounting for 261 members took strong positions against the Manmohan Singh government's decision. Yet, when the vote was taken, only 218 votes could be counted in the anti-FDI column.      The UPA's serial rescuers—the SP and the BSP with 43 votes between them—again performed the role to the hilt. The two UP outfits which had slammed the FDI move on Tuesday predictably decided not to translate their rhetoric into action. They walked out of the House just before  the members were called to stand up and be counted, allowing the UPA to romp home with 253 seats with a total 471 members voting. A motion for amending the Foreign Exchange Management Act, an imperative for the implementation of the decision to allow FDI in multi-brand retail, was also passed by 30 votes.      The rescue act attracted the familiar allegation that Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mayawati had let the fear of the CBI get the better of their aversion for Walmart, but reinforced the reputation of the UPA as an escape artiste that manages to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat every time. Beginning with its win in the trust vote over the nuclear deal with the US, the UPA government has consistently defied numerical odds to pip its rivals to the post.  ...BUT IT WILL BE A CLIFFHANGER IN UPPER HOUSE      Rajya Sabha's strength: 244. BSP & SP have 24 (15 & 9) MPs. If they abstain, House strength down to 220, leaving majority mark at 111. NDA claims it has 110 votes. If that's so, UPA won't get majority in RS      But it's not as pat as that. Both sides scrambling to get support of MPs who are unattached (Amar Singh & BJD rebel Pyari Mohan Mahapatra) or independent (Rajeev Chandrasekhar & A B Swamy)      4 MPs supporting govt won't be there: Tendulkar will be playing cricket at Eden Gardens, while Murli Deora, Janardhana Reddy & Janardhan Waghmare are grounded due to ill health      Not known how 2 JMM members will vote. NDA camp's V N Singh of JD(U) won't attend because his daughter is getting married, while floater Parimal Nathwani's preference is not known