Sunday, August 31, 2008

Every 2nd Indian will go mobile by 2012

ONE EAR TWO LESS

New Delhi: With India now adding 8-10 million mobile subscribers every month, up to half the nation's population—or one in every two citizens—will own a mobile phone in India by the middle of 2012.
    According to Business Monitor International, a renowned London-based research firm, 612 million mobile subscribers by 2012 will help India clock a mobile teledensity of roughly 51% by 2012. This scorching pace of growth is unlikely to falter unless the sector faces unforeseen policy disasters or if India's operators fail to roll out their networks.
    International Telecom Union's (ITU) projections are in the same range.India is already the world's second largest mobile market, behind China's 500 plus million mobile subscriber base.

    Increasing incomes, changing lifestyles and lower cost of technology are allowing more and more Indians to ride the telecom wave. The new numbers overtake earlier estimates, including from UBS, Citigroup and Credit Suisse, predicting a mobile population of 400-450 million by March 2010. Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers have been more even conservative, betting on a base of just 400 million by 2010.
    However, India will reach this milestone in 2009 itself. India's mobile revolution has been a huge social leveler, with the growing number of users tying a diverse nation in a manner rarely seen before.
    Its youth are expected to contribute significantly to these surging numbers. Sir Richard Branson, founder, Virgin Group, which tied up with Tata Teleservices to launch branded services in
India recently said, "An exciting market, with over 215 million Indians aged 14-25 years. Over the next three years we expect to be adding 50 million new youth subscribers.''
    While companies like Virgin are currently focused on the urban market, it is clear that the next set of growth will come from B and C category cities as well as rural India. Mobile penetration of
this magnitude has the ability to revolutionalize long distance learning and health care quickly reaching some of the most far flung and difficult terrains.
    Where mobile content is concerned most analysts agree that, largely on the back of India's popular film industry, music services will grow very quickly, even if other content related revenue lags behind.
    Given that a reasonable part of the population by 2010 will be children below 14 and senior citizens, it seems mobile access among the youth and working classes will be more in the range of 70-80%. In policy terms, government needs to quickly turn its focus on redirecting funds for rural mobile access, manage spectrum efficiently and invite multi-billion dollar investments at a pan-India level to fuel this already scorching telecom growth.




Vince Lombardi  - "We didn't lose the game; we just ran out of time."

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DreamWorks deal marks big changes for Bollywood

By Alex Dobuzinskis

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Indian media company Reliance ADA Group's expected deal to finance a new incarnation of the DreamWorks film studio signals broader changes for Bollywood moviemakers looking to reach Western audiences, experts said.

The United States and India are the world's largest film producers, and U.S.-based studios have stepped up investment in India. By contrast, Bollywood — an informal name for the Indian industry whose movies in large part feature singing and dancing — has its eye on the United States as a marketplace, investment opportunity and model for growth, experts said.

"We're really looking forward to our movies being accepted by the Western audiences," said Ken Naz, president of North American operations for Eros International, a distributor of Bollywood films.

Reliance is currently in talks with director Steven Spielberg and his DreamWorks co-founder David Geffen to invest about $500 million in the movie studio behind hits such as "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" if, as is widely expected, they leave their parent company, Paramount Pictures, which is owned by Viacom Inc..

But Reliance is not looking for creative control, which Hollywood jealously guards, said Farokh Balsara, an Indian-based analyst with the firm Ernst & Young.

"It gives them some sort of stake in the whole Hollywood ecosystem," Balsara said. "And with that they get to know how Hollywood functions and what they do and don't do."

An attorney representing Reliance declined to comment.

With operations in telecommunications, financial services and energy, Reliance only recently ventured into film. It also is buying about 200 U.S. theaters and has signed film production deals with companies owned by A-list Hollywood stars including George Clooney and Tom Hanks. 




Friday, August 22, 2008

Micro Markets – The new growth engine for 2008


Micro Markets – The new growth engine for 2008
According to latest 2Q 2008 Asia Pacific Property Digest research from Jones Lang LaSalle

India, 20 August 2008 - The office property markets have continued to post growth over the past few years. However, the last few quarters, have witnessed a polarization of office markets in terms of growth in demand across the country, reports Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj in its second quarter 2008 Asia Pacific Property Digest (APPD), a comprehensive quarterly report providing market update, significant trends in office markets in India.

The office markets, across six Indian cities including Mumbai, Delhi NCR, Bangalore, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkata, can categorized into three broad segments

(1) first segment includes markets which are likely to be "susceptible" in terms of retarded demand growth for the remaining half year of 2008.
(2) second segment includes micro markets which are "strong" in terms of maintaining demand growth for the next two quarters, and
(3) third set includes micro markets which have "high potential" in terms of improving demand growth for the rest of the year.

Anuj Puri, Chairman and Country Head, Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj says, "It is interesting to note that the "high potential" office micro markets, anticipated to clock increased growth in demand, would do so essentially on the back of affordable product values, improving infrastructure and enhanced product being delivered. It is expected that over the next 8-10 quarters, such markets could witness strong pre-leasing commitments by occupiers despite robust supply pipelines, which are in place."


Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj 2Q 2008 APPD; CBD-Central Business District; SBD-Secondary Business District

In case of the susceptible markets, demand from occupiers in the IT/ITES segment, could be rationalized on the back of economic slowdown in the US. This coupled with the strong supply pipeline in many of these markets could lead to a potential consolidation in the respective markets, leading to relatively higher vacancies, although, this may not immediately manifest itself in any marked rental consolidation in such markets.

If the global economic slowdown sustains, we foresee the vacancies to rise in these micro-markets due to strong supply volumes. This might put some pressure on the rental values next year. Rental values are consolidating across all vulnerable markets, however, no major rental fall is expected in these markets this year.

Moreover, it is increasingly becoming evident over the last two quarters that micro markets which are dependent on demand from IT/ ITES occupiers, are likely to be more sensitive to the occupation cost variations as compared to those micro markets which derive demand from non IT/ITES occupiers.

This is evident from the fact that many of the CBD areas in cities such as Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore and Kolkata continue to enjoy captive demand from corporate occupiers mainly from BFSI, Consulting, and other service industries. The consistency in most of these office markets is also attributable in part to the relatively limited growth in the supply pipeline over the last few years.

Supply Trends
In terms of new office supply completions in the first half year 2008 as compared to same period in the previous year (2007), it is interesting to note that the cities (including all micro markets) that have clocked the highest positive growth rate in terms of delivered supply on a year-on-year are Kolkata, Chennai, Mumbai and Delhi. In fact, Bangalore and Hyderabad are two cities which have actually posted negative growth in terms of stock completion in first half of 2008 vis-a-vis same period 2007.

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj 2Q08 APPD

Outlook
A remarkable insight to note is that Hyderabad, Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Bangalore have more than half of the total expected office stock completions planned to be delivered in the remaining half of 2008. Whereas, in Kolkata the situation is just reverse, where about a third of the total stock completions are due to be delivered in the remaining half of 2008.

On the demand front, the second half of 2008 is expected to witness high pre-leasing activity in most IT SEZs and, IT parks developed by blue chip developers. While the slowdown in the IT/ITES sector is a known story, the slowdown has been only in terms of a deceleration in the estimated growth rate to 21-24% for 2008-09 vis-a-vis the recorded 28.2% growth in FY 2008. Further demand from emerging industries like pharma, biotech, semiconductor, R&D operations and logistics will top this IT/ITES demand. Thus, taking cognizance of the supply-demand scenario, the next two years will witness strengthening of the real estate office market fundamentals in terms of market behaviour, rationalisation of demand-supply, and increased consolidation.


About Jones Lang LaSalle
Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services firm specializing in real estate. The firm offers integrated services delivered by expert teams worldwide to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying or investing in real estate. With 2007 global revenue of USD2.7 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle has approximately 180 offices worldwide and operates in more than 700 cities in 60 countries. The firm is an industry leader in property and corporate facility management services, with a portfolio of approximately 1.2 billion square feet worldwide. LaSalle Investment Management, the company's investment management business, is one of the world's largest and most diverse in real estate with more than USD54 billion of assets under management. For further information, please visit our website, http://www.joneslanglasalle.com/.


Jones Lang LaSalle has over 50 years of experience in Asia Pacific, with over 16,000 employees operating in more than 70 offices in 13 countries across the region.


About Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj

Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj, the Indian operations of Jones Lang LaSalle, is the premiere and largest real estate professional services firm in India. With an extensive geographic footprint across ten cities (Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Kochi, Chandigarh and Coimbatore) and a staff strength of over 3300, the firm provides investors, developers, local corporate and multinational companies with a comprehensive range of services including research, consultancy, transactions, project and development services, integrated facility management, property management, capital markets, residential, hotels and retail advisory. For further information, please visit www.jllm.co.in



Monday, August 18, 2008

The shape of Indian talent after 61 years of Independence




Leading the world: Abhinav Bindra's (top left) success at the Beijing Olympics and the appointment of Indra Nooyi (centre) and Vikram Pandit at the helm of their organisations are all signs that Indian talent is blossoming on the global stage.

Ganesh Chella

Even as we celebrate 61 years of Independence, it might be opportune to take a step back and look at how Independence has shaped the DNA of talent in India. An extremely relevant thought, if we believe, quite proudly, that India is one of the largest talent factories of the world.

With an Indian finally winning an individual gold in the Olympics, an Indian heading PepsiCo and another heading Citigroup, with the largest ever number of Indian companies on the Fortune 500 list and the largest ever number of Indians on the Forbes list , there is every reason to believe that Indian talent is beginning to blossom, flourish and maybe even claim its place in the world.

Let us take a look at the changing DNA of Indian talent and what has shaped this over the years.

Achievement motivation

For a long time, western observers felt that India's spiritualism, philosophy of renunciation, fatalism and asceticism constituted insurmountable obstacles to its material progress. Even David McClelland concluded that 'achievement motivation' (the desire to achieve purely for the sake of achievement) was lacking among Indians, based on his experience with handloom weavers in Orissa and artisans in Kakinada.

This genetic code has been significantly modified. The series of structural interventions have helped enhance the level of achievement orientation in Indian society. The unmotivated of the past are now a hugely motivated lot and are ever seeking more.

From a time when the average middle-class Indian was most risk averse, we are now witnessing a huge surge of entrepreneurial action thanks to a high growth economy and the emergence of a supportive entrepreneurial eco-system. The DNA of enterprise is certainly a lot more active and dominant than ever before.

Power shifts from the labour movement to labour market

From a time when talent was dependent on internal or external leaders to determine its destiny and many in the labour movement held the power, we have quite rapidly moved to a situation where the power is now with the individual with talent, who now controls the labour market by demanding his price and getting his due share. This shift to taking charge of one's destiny is huge. The mind-set shift from employment to employability among the talent in India is also significant.

Celebrating Indianness

One of the important symbols of independence is national pride and the celebration of our identity and our strengths. On this count, I think we have a very long way to go. Even after 61 years of freedom, we continue to look to the West and anything foreign as superior. By the same token, we also do not do enough to be the best in the world in what we do. Our national pride has not propelled us enough to achieve excellence in all fields.

The most sought after employers are still MNCs and not Indian organisations. We continue to respect practices that are foreign and have done little to document the great Indian stories and examples. There are more western scholars and researchers who have visited Aravind Eye Hospitals than Indians. It took the likes of C. K. Prahalad, Forbes magazine and the BBC to tell us about the greatness of the Nutan Mumbai Tiffin Box Suppliers' Association.

Corporations large and small continue to believe that western ideas are superior to Indian ones. Sixty-one years is a long time to shed this awkwardness about what is Indian and, in fact, begin to celebrate it with pride.

The changing magnets of talent

The real greatness of Indian talent was the diverse pockets in which it was found. There were talented poets, philosophers, scientists, civil servants, social activists, teachers, statesman-like political leaders and so on. There was no single powerful magnet towards which talent was attracted.

Unfortunately, the situation is quite different today. All good talent is moving away from working for the Government, away from the rural areas, away from agriculture, away from research, away from teaching, away from public service into the hugely attractive world of business and money. This also leaves me wondering where the next generation of Abdul Kalams, V. Kuriens, Kiran Bedis, Baba Amtes, and many other such legendaries will come from and will they come at all. It leaves me worried that the huge diversity of talent we enjoyed will get eroded and replaced by a type of talent that is driven purely by economics alone and will be hoarded by the select few who can pay for it.

The new custodians of talent

A huge responsibility for shaping talent rests with employers of every kind. Are the employers of today doing enough to provide the right setting in which future talent will be nurtured? I am not very sure at all that this is happening.

For one, relationships between employers and employees which were based on reciprocity and long-term orientation have eroded into transient and market-based arrangements. Investment in employees is seen as a necessary means to business success and as even a price to pay for a faulty education system. We are far from visionary in our commitment to shaping talent.

Indian philosophy and values

Indian talent is mostly oblivious to the power of our philosophy and scriptures and the great lessons they hold for business and life. It is seriously influenced by values of greed and success. Maybe it will take an autobiography from a sub-prime afflicted CEO to tell us how a karmic approach to duty and not focusing on the fruits of action could have prevented him from ruining the lives of millions.

It is time the talent factory of the world nurtured and celebrated its 'Made in India' tag!

(The writer is the founder and CEO of totus consulting, a strategic HR consulting firm. He is also the co-founder of the Executive & Business Coaching Foundation India Ltd. He can be reached at ganesh@totusconsulting.com)




Robert Orben  - "To err is human - and to blame it on a computer is even more so."

Theme unveiled for CII Connect 2008

CIOL - Bangalore,Karnataka,India

The question under such a scenario would be as to how every company is maintaining the growth story despite looming pressures of slowdown. ...


 

Sunday, August 17, 2008

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Friday, August 15, 2008

27.5 m WiMAX users in India by ’12: Study

"WiMAX technology has the potential to bridge India's digital divide, offering broadband services in dense urban and suburban areas, rural broadband connectivity to enable high-speed wireless applications and services," the study stated.    Whatever the actual numbers in future, WiMAX does offer a compelling option to users to get broadband access. Last week, the WiMAX Forum complimented the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) for the allocation of and upcoming auction relating to the 2.3 and 2.5 GHz frequency bands. The auction will enable two 20 MHz blocks to be available for WiMAX in both the 2.3 and 2.5 GHz bands. The WiMAX Forum also lauded the government's plans to auction blocks in the 700 MHz and 3.3-3.6 GHz bands. The Forum expects to certify the first 3.5 GHz WiMAX products by the end of 2008 and views 700 MHz as a strong contender for mobile Internet services, especially in India's low-density rural areas.     However, research firm Gartner was more conservative in its projection of WiMAX users in India. In a report, it predicted that India will remain a niche market for WiMAX until 2009. India will have just 6.9 million mobile and fixed WiMAX connections by the end of 2011 according to Gartner. The reason Gartner cites is the failure of the government to effectively motivate operators to roll out countrywide mobile broadband. WiMAX is still a niche technology and limited to enterprise and high-end residential users in urban India, according to Gartner.

 INDIA will have over 27.5 million WiMAX users by 2012. About 70% of the WiMAX subscribers will use mobile and portable WiMAX devices to access broadband Internet services, according to a study by the WiMAX Forum. Interestingly, as on January 2008, India had only 3.4 million broadband subscribers, less than the target nine million by 2007 set by the broadband policy makers.
    WiMAX, or Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access, is a telecom technology that provides wireless data in a variety of ways, ranging from point-to-point links to full mobile cellular-type access. According to the study, low operator capex, innovative return on investment (ROI) models combined with the economies of scale are the factors that will drive down the cost of the wide range of diverse WiMAX devices, fuelling the subscriber base in India.
    "India is clearly making the commitment and taking steps to ensure wireless broadband services are a reality that enable
operators to meet the needs of India's diverse and growing population," said WiMAX Forum president Ron Resnick.



Monday, August 11, 2008

Trade potential between Pakistan and India untapped


By By Arif Zaman
8/10/2008
If to some people, the words 'cricket' and 'conflict' come to mind when thinking of India and Pakistan, we need to update the language to embrace another two Cs ó connections and commerce.

The year 2008 has in fact already seen a wide-ranging number of breakthrough developments in areas such as film, finance and flights. Bollywood could finally be coming to Pakistan as Pakistanís parliamentary committee on culture has given its go-ahead to lift a four-decade ban on Hindi films. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) have signed a MoU to encourage greater cooperation in promoting and developing their respective capital markets. Of perhaps the greatest impact, both countries have agreed to double the number of weekly passenger flights with direct flights commencing between Delhi and Islamabad.

A key reason why intra-regional trade is being impeded in South Asia is the persistent hostility between India and Pakistan. Trade between these countries has been abnormally low. The share of total trade between Pakistan and India measured by the sum of the bilateral exports amounts only to 0.9 per cent of total exports from India and Pakistan. This is only 40 per cent of the equivalent measure of bilateral trade between Malaysia and China, two countries of comparable GDP and proximity and only 9 per cent of the equivalent measure of trade that occurs between Argentina and Brazil, other countries of comparable size.

Bilateral trade between India and Pakistan reached $1.6 billion in 2006-07 from $835 million in 2004-05, so this has almost doubled. For the first time, imports from India to Pakistan have crossed the $1 billion mark and currently stand at $1.25 billion. Pakistanís exports to India on the other hand have grown slowly from $280 million in 2004-05 to only $370 million in 2006-07 despite the fact that India has granted MFN status to Pakistan. While Pakistan has so far not applied the provisions of South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) to Indo-Pakistan trade, the largest component of intra-regional trade in South Asia, there is no doubt that strong economic relations between Pakistan and India would go a long way in securing SAFTA's success.

However, trade flows between India and Pakistan have been low over the course of the past half a century for three main reasons: political tensions, the use of import-substitution policies to promote industrialisation, and in contrast to other regions of the world, relatively little commitment to regional integration.

There are three key reasons why trade between India and Pakistan needs to be enhanced. First, viewed in a larger regional context, South Asia is the least integrated region and stronger economic relations between India and Pakistan is a key element of regional integration and stability in South Asia. Second, there are vast untapped trade and investment possibilities between the two countries which can be gainfully exploited with significant welfare gains and opportunities to alleviate poverty and strengthen human security. South Asia is home to 24 per cent of the world's population but 42 per cent of its poorest people. Third, as natural trading partners with a common border, trading with each other can be substantially higher as the potential is estimated to be 10 times the current level.

Research for the World Bank found that informal trade between India and Pakistan was around $545 million in 2005, a finding based on field research in border regions, Dubai, and major urban markets. There is a need to simplify and align the bilateral trade regime so that incentives for smuggling are reduced. This would expand trade through formal channels. Indeed, there is evidence that informal trade between India and Pakistan has declined in recent years, as both countries have liberalised their trade policies.

The Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations in a 2007 survey of Indian firms found that there are vast untapped trade and investment possibilities between the two countries both in goods and services. However, there are still no Indo-Pakistan joint ventures despite strong business interest on both sides due to the absence of an enabling environment for such investment. For example, there are no institutional mechanisms for bilateral investment guarantees.

In recent years, the private sector has played an active role in identifying areas of trade interest, areas of possible joint ventures and other forms of co-operation between the two countries. Potential sectors for mutual cooperation between India and Pakistan include agricultural products, tyres, auto spare-parts, minerals, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, leather, textiles, telecommunications, gas pipeline, electricity generation using coal and wind energy in the Sindh province of Pakistan.

Studies undertaken by the private sector also see a large scope for trade in several service sectors such as health, entertainment services, information technology, energy and tourism. India and Pakistan have mostly common multinational companies operating in their respective countries such as Standard Chartered, Unilever, GSK, BAT and British Airways, which are a force to be harnessed as they can act as meaningful conduits for trade and investment if they source raw material from each other. There are huge opportunities for a two-way trade in readymade garments, particularly ethnic garments such as shawls, shalwar-kameez and saris. Trade in agricultural commodities could bridge the short-term supply shortages caused due to seasonal crop fluctuations. India and Pakistan can enter into joint ventures for the production of bulk drugs with arrangement in terms of technology supply and marketing support.

There is immense potential for cooperation in the energy sector. India and Pakistan could enter into joint ventures to tap the global market for software.

There is scope for trade and cooperation in the film, television and music sector capitalising on a common culture and dynamic and expanding media industries in both countries. Tourism holds immense potential for the two countries recognising the shared cultural heritage and the emergence of new, more dynamic and less risk-averse airlines in both countries.

With an improved security and political environment and a resolution of the long-standing Kashmir conflict, citizens of both countries would be able to reap a large peace dividend. It would come not only through more trade in goods and services, but also from joint ventures and investments in each other's country, improved coordination of economic and financial policies, and, last but not the least, from financing investments in human capital and economic infrastructure by releasing budget resources that are now committed to defence and security.

To reap the full benefits of Pakistan-India trade requires complementary economic and social reforms. First, trade liberalisation between Pakistan and India would be even more successful if it is pursued in the context of a wider reform agenda that enhances domestic productivity, international competitiveness and economic growth. Second, trade liberalisation will work best with a level-playing field. Pakistan and India would gain by continuing to discuss ways to streamline their domestic trade regimes to provide equal opportunity for producers and exporters in both countries to gain from expanding bilateral trade.

Third, investments in the hardware (transport and communication) as well as software (legal and regulatory trade framework) are required for effective trade integration. As the SAARC chamber has recently pointed out, the bilateral economic discussions could focus on concrete steps to remove hindrances in the way of logistics of trade, ease visa restrictions for business travel, improve trade facilitation and strengthen infrastructure.

Other strong and growing fora in both countries, such as the Indus Entrepreneurs and YPO networks should also be mobilised to act as a push for progress in these and other areas.

—The author is adviser, Commonwealth Business Council and SAARC Chamber


Sunday, August 10, 2008

‘Retail is the key economic engine of growth in India’

Shravan Gupta, 35, executive vice-chairman & MD, MGF Emaar Group, is among the few entrepreneurs who have pushed their family business into hitherto uncharted territories. He was barely 20 when he set up an automobile distribution division with the likes of Hyundai, Toyota and Volvo. His next big leap came in 1996, when he steered the family business into real estate and became the first group to diversify into the retail sector. The group now is toying with the idea of tapping the stock market, but only if the situation improves. In an exclusive interview with Raja Awasthi, Mr Gupta speaks about the real estate industry and his group's future plans. Excerpts:

Given the weak global sentiment and lacklustre demand, do you think real estate prices will soften more in the near future?
    The real estate sector is an emerging industry in the country and has witnessed some sharp changes in the past few months due to upheavals in the macro economic dynamics. But despite double-digit inflation and imminent liquidity crunch, the fundamentals of the business remain relatively optimistic. For the realty sector in particular, the pent-up demand is significant and actual end-users have substituted the waning speculative interest in the sector. Though there is a perception that
the real estate sector in general is witnessing a short cooling-off period, we believe it is a correction in some submarkets. Today, within the global macro economic context, India still remains an attractive investment destination. With most emerging and major markets experiencing a downslide, India stands to provide greater returns on investment.
With stock markets on a roller-coaster ride, do you have any plan to tap the capital market?
    
We will revisit the equity markets when sentiments improve and there is a sustained phase of consolidation.
Has raising funds become difficult for real estate companies?
    
One of the challenges that developers are facing today is liquidity crunch due to stemming of fund flows and rising input costs. However, we are a well capitalised company with a strong brand and a long-term vision for the real estate sector in India. While the current situation can
be trying for companies that were aiming for quick, short-term returns, for more established players, this is only a part of the business cycle.
The investment scenario is not bright at the moment. Will we see more PE deals in the given scenario?
    
Yes; considering the overall economic scenario at present, many developers including EmaarMGF will look at PE funds for further funding requirements.
Many real estate groups have already forayed into hospitality, financial services, retail and telecom. Do you plan to diversify further?
    
As one of the country's leading real estate developers, we are already present across four key business segments — residential, retail, com
mercial, IT and hospitality, in addition to education, healthcare and infrastructure sectors. We have an extensive pipeline of projects spread over 26 cities and our current focus is to consolidate and streamline our project rollout plans, emphasising on efficient delivery and customer satisfaction.
Your take on the potential of Indian retail market?
    
Retail is one of the key economic engines of growth in the country. While the sector has
been experiencing a heady growth over the last few years, the current global meltdown and runaway crude prices have dampened the overall economic environment. This has had an impact on retail real estate with rentals coming down and stemming/ reining of project plans in the short term.
    However, India's retail sector is evolving at a swift pace due to rapidly changing lifestyles and consumer aspirations of an ever-burgeoning middle class. The total retail mall stock has been doubling every year, from a meagre one million square feet in 2002 to a staggering 40 million sq ft by end of 2007, and an estimated 60 million square feet by the end of 2008. It is estimated that the number of operational malls to grow more than double to over 412 with 205 million sq ft by 2010, and further 715 malls by 2015, on the back of major retail developments spread across tier II and tier III cities in India. We foresee sustained growth in this sector over the next few years.
    raja.awasthi@timesgroup.com 




Saturday, August 9, 2008

Indians as crisis managers

Are more and more global cos in troubled times turning to Indians with their innate skill to 'kindly adjust'?

Mythili Bhusnurmath

VIKRAM Pandit, Arun Sarin, Rakesh Gangwal, Rono Dutta, Indra Nooyi, Deven Sharma — what do all of them have in common? Sure, they are all Indians who made it to the helm at global giants — Citigroup, Vodafone, US Airways, United Airlines, Pepsi and Standard and Poor's, respectively. But there is something else all of them, with the exception perhaps of Nooyi, have in common. They were all appointed to the top job when their companies were passing through particularly troubled times.
    Take Vikram Pandit. He came to Citi just as the financial giant was reeling under the sub-prime crisis. As one of the most aggressive players in the financial sector, Citi's devil-may-care attitude, best symbolised by former CEO's Chuck Prince's comment, "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance," ended in disaster.
    When the music stopped, Citi found itself reeling under losses and Prince found himself out of a job. So who did the Board bring in to pick up the pieces and restore order? Vikram Pandit.
    It's much the same story at S&P. The credit rating agency, along with Moody's, has an overwhelming share of the ratings business. Such is their influence that Thomas Friedman, the New York Times columnist, once remarked, 'there are two superpowers in the world — the United States and Moody's bond-rating service — and it is sometimes unclear which is more powerful.' He could have as well been talking of S&P.
    Today rating agencies are out in the cold, unloved by many. Faced with mounting criticism, S&P was forced to dump its President, Kathleen Corbett. Who did they turn to? India-born Deven Sharma!
    Vodafone may not have been in as deep trouble as Citi and S&P when Arun Sarin took the reins in 2003. But the telecom major was still trying to digest various bold acquisitions and Sarin faced considerable shareholder opposition before he came out trumps and the tide turned in his favour.
    So too with Gangwal and Dutta. Both came to
troubled airlines and though they might not have achieved the success of a Sarin, they performed commendably, given the odds against them.
    What is all this a pointer to? Could it be that Indians, long recognised for their managerial skills, are now increasingly being seen as good crisismanagers too? Part of the reason for this could be cultural. Indian managers, at least those who've
spent their early years in India, are used to a far from perfect world. Every day brings a minor crisis. Almost! You never know what to expect. Things that you routinely take for granted in the West, basic amenities like water and electricity or even law and order, for instance, can never be taken as a given. So we learn to improvise, work around problems rather than take them head-on. 'Jugad' (making do) is in our DNA while our 'kindly adjust' spirit means we have an innate ability to focus on common elements that bind rather than differences that could get in the way.
    This was brought home to me very starkly during a conference on doing business in a globalised world when a New Zealander spoke of how handicapped his countrymen from monoculture New Zealand — English-speaking, largely Christian and white — felt when it came to dealing with diverse cultures, especially in Asia. That's something none of us in India can complain of. We're such a riot of cultures, languages, religions, that it is almost impossible for any of us to grow up without exposure to a multitude of ideas and beliefs.
    Take something as simple as language. The average educated Indian grows up with at least two-languages — English and Hindi — and if you are not from the Northern belt, then with a minimum of three — English, Hindi and your mother tongue. In metros and increasingly in smaller towns as well, your neighbours could be from any part of the country, speak one of more than 50 languages (if you include dialects) and belong to any religion.
    Yet none of this fazes us. We learn to get by. The ultimate test of this, of course, is the paneer masala dosa! If you can eat one and relish it, why then managing global companies with businesses in varied locations and employees belonging to diverse nationalities should be a cakewalk! Any wonder more and more companies in trouble are turning to Indians?
    mythili.bhusnurmath@timesgroup.com 


Thursday, August 7, 2008

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Ratan Tata to be conferred honorary Doctorate on Friday

7 Aug, 2008, 1817 hrs IST, PTI
MUMBAI: Top industrialist Ratan Tata is to be conferred a honorary doctorate in science for his extraordinary contribution to the growth of Indian industry and supporting the cause of science and technology.

He will be conferred with Degree of Doctor of Science (Honoris Causa) at the 46th convocation of Indian Institute of Technology(IIT) here tomorrow.

President Pratibha Patil will confer the degree at the convocation ceremony which will be held at the IIT campus in suburban Powai.

"Tata is a strong proponent of values in business ethics and social responsibility and will be honoured for his far reaching vision," IIT Director Ashok Misra said.

Patil will also be presenting President of India medals as well as gold medals to meritorious candidates of the institute. She would also be delivering the convocation speech.

The President will be arriving in the city around 1130 hours and travel straight to IIT alongwith her staff, which would travel by a Volvo bus to minimise the number of vehicles in her cavalcade, official sources said.

Governor S C Jamir will preside over the convocation and Chairman of the Board of Governors of IIT Anil Kakodkar and Director IIT Ashok Misra will address the convocation. Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh will also be present on the ocassion, sources added.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

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Tuesday, August 5, 2008

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Monday, August 4, 2008

A rich harvest from Kisaan Bazaars

Organised retail might be faltering in urban India, but is booming in rural India, going by the experience of DCM Shriram Consolidated Ltd's Hariyali Kisaan Bazaar (HKB). Aimed exclusively at rural India, the company has seen sales from its 160 stores more than double in the last couple of years.

Average sales at an HKB store have gone up to Rs 5 lakh a day during the harvest seasons, while it is around a tenth of that during the lean season. That means the turnover of a single HBK store is over Rs 6 crore, annually, while the investment cost varies between Rs 2 crore and Rs 3 crore.

The growing popularity of HKB stores has also prompted banks and insurance companies to look at possible tie-ups to tap the rural customer. ICICI Lombard and HDFC Bank have already tied up with HKB for their products. Though he furnished few details, Ajay S Shriram, chairman & senior managing director, DCM Shriram Consolidated, said, "Banks and insurance companies get a ready customer base on a platter."

Shriram said HKB's retail model was developed exclusively for rural customers. "We have no intentions to bring it to urban areas; it has been designed for rural customers," he said, adding that retail in rural India is commercially viable.

HKB not only sells products relating to agriculture like fertilisers and seeds, but also household items as 40% of rural India comprises those that are not engaged in farming, Shriram pointed out.

The success of HKB has also encouraged the company to launch pulses and masalas under its own Hariyali brand.



India among world's top 15 automakers: UNIDO report


NEW DELHI: With a burgeoning auto industry to boast of, India has made it to the top 15 automakers of the world and occupies the fourth position in the leading developing countries' category of motor vehicle manufacturers, a United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) report has said.

According to the UNIDO International Yearbook of Industrial Statistics 2008, India ranks 12th in the list of world's top 15 automakers, which is led by Japan followed by the US and Germany. Other countries making it to list are Mexico, France, Korea, UK, Canada, Spain, Iran, Sweden, Brazil, Italy and Indonesia.

In the leading developing countries category, India ranks fourth. The list is topped by Mexico, followed by Korea, Iran. Brazil holds the fifth position followed by Indonesia, Turkey, Argentina, Thailand, Singapore, China, China (Taiwan Province), Malaysia, UAE and Columbia.

India also figures among the world's top 15 producers of chemicals and chemical products, electrical machinery and apparatus, basic metals (iron and steel, non-ferrous metals), coke, refined petroleum products, nuclear fuel, non-metallic mineral products (glass and glass products, cement, lime and plaster, ceramic products), machinery and equipment, leather, leather products and footwear and textiles, the report said.

The country ranks fifth among the top 15 textile producers in the world. China has captured the top slot followed by the US, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Germany, Korea, UK, Brazil, Turkey and Bangladesh.

The Yearbook is the 14th issue of UNIDO's annual publication and is based on 2006 data. It follows the International Standard for Industrial Classification that categorises the automobile sector as manufacture of motor vehicles, bodies (coachwork) for motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers and manufacture of parts and accessories of motor vehicles and their engines.

The main purpose of the Yearbook is to provide statistical indicators to facilitate international comparisons relating to the manufacturing sector. Countries are listed in two categories of industrialised and developing countries in the publication.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Rendezvous Vision & Scale : " Mukesh Dhirubhai Ambani "

Mukesh Ambani Interview:

If Dhirubhai Ambani was a larger-than-life patriarch and Anil was the public face of Reliance,
Mukesh Ambani was an enigma. Those who knew him well credited him with leading Reliance ' s turbo-charged growth over the last two decades.

But very little is publicly known of his beliefs, vision and motivation. In his most expansive interview ever to
MoneyLIFE, a personal finance magazine, Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani tells MoneyLIFE editors Sucheta Dalal and Debashis Basu, what drives him and his business decisions

A lot of details about your life are already known. But we don ' t know things from your end. Your life has changed dramatically in just about three decades; will you take us through that process?


From my point of view, very little has changed (Laughs). In terms of attitude to life, little has changed. There are important lessons I have learnt during my upbringing. It is important to share these, though these are tough to practise as a parent (smiles).


We were like a joint family and I was the first child of the family of that generation. There were advantages in being the first child those days. My father navigated through life from Aden in Yemen to Bhuleshwar (a congested commercial precinct in Mumbai), to Usha Kiran (Mumbai ' s earliest skyscraper) at Altamount Road to Sea Wind (an exclusive tower which is the Ambani residence).


My first memories are of the early ' 60s at Altamount Road which was then an emerging area. We were a close-knit family and the four of us -- Dipti, Nina, Anil and I -- were left to do what we wanted. There were boundaries, of course, but within those, we were not micro-managed. Things have changed so much now. When my kids, Isha and Akash, were in the third standard, we behaved as though it was our exam.


Our own childhood was totally different. I guess when you are left on your own, you find your true potential. I remember my father never came to our school even once. Nevertheless, he was hugely interested in our all-round development for which he did some amazing things.


Give us an example.


Imagine this. In the mid-60s, he put out a newspaper ad for a teacher, but specified that his responsibility would be non-academic; he would have to impart general knowledge. He interviewed several persons and selected Mahendrabhai Vyas who taught at the New Era School . Mahendrabhai used to come every evening and stay with us till 6.30-7 pm.


His brief was our all-round development. We played hockey, football and different kinds of games, watched matches at Cooperage, travelled in buses and trains and explored different parts of Bombay . We went camping and stayed in a village for 10-15 days every year.


These experiences have helped us a lot, but at that time, we were not very aware of all the learning that was going on. The two hours with Mahendrabhai every evening were great fun. A third track running at that time, apart from academics and the fun stuff, was that my father shared with me his passion for business and entrepreneurship from very early on. Even when I was in high school, I used to spend long hours at office on weekends.


So, these were the four components of my upbringing -- the academic stuff where I was left to myself, Mahendrabhai, my father ' s passion for creating Reliance and the last piece was his deep links with the family.


A lot of what I have learned from these influences has stayed with me. From the external perspective, my life may have changed a lot, but when I look back at myself in the 1970s, 1980s and now, I see consistency.


How would you describe this?


For my father, life was uni-dimensional. Reliance was his life. Yet, some of my most vivid memories are about spending time with him. However busy he may have been, whatever the pressure, Sunday was for his wife and kids. I try to do the same with my family.


And it has to be non-academic. It is easy to be with your kids and say let ' s do homework together. But we try to do things, beyond doing lunches and dinners. I learnt that from my father. He was a big nature lover and during our school days, we went to different places every Sunday -- we walked through the forest or had a bath in streams.


I have turned into a big nature fan as well. The change in my life that you talked about is that I can afford it more today. These childhood influences have shaped me into what I am today.


What about your choice of higher education, why did you choose chemical engineering?


In fact, the choice illustrates what I meant about academic decisions being left to us. Nobody asked me to do chemical engineering. I chose to study science and which college I would go to.


By that time -- the early ' 70s -- Vimal was a fairly successful textile brand. So everybody expected me to do textile engineering. I shocked them by saying that I would go to IIT. Interestingly, 4-5 of us friends studying together for Inter-science were all among the top 10. Ajay Parekh, who runs Pidilite, topped Bombay University . I stood fifth or sixth.


Since Inter-science results were announced after the IIT entrance, I joined IIT, Bombay . After the Inter-science results a few weeks later, I left and joined University Department of Chemical Technology (UDCT) along with my friends.


Did your academic choices help you in the process of self-discovery?


From the beginning, it was clear that we would have to find our own path. Along with that came the self-realisation that we would have to propel ourselves to achieve excellence. I am trying to learn how to do that as a parent. There is a trick somewhere; sometimes we do a lot. I feel that I am more ready for ICSE exams than my daughter. I know everything and I can beat any parent of my age in ICSE exam hands down.


How do you get the time to do it?


I am passionate about it, so one makes the time. My daughter says it is wrong. ' I will have to study it myself, ' she says. The trick is to light a fire. It is not about pouring knowledge into the brains of kids but lighting that spark so that they learn by themselves.


With us, my father achieved it without trying as hard as we do. It also depends on circumstances, friends and luck. Probably, we were fortunate to have everything in place.


Many of your childhood friends are still working with you -- you clearly forged lasting bonds.


Anand and I have been friends since the sixth standard; he then went on to study commerce. I met Manoj at UDCT. (Anand Jain now leads the Reliance effort in SEZ and Manoj Modi heads the retailing venture). I have other friends as well from that period. Kiran Manelkar became a doctor; because of him, I have many friends who are doctors.


Why did you choose chemical engineering?


Nobody had anticipated that chemicals was the direction in which Reliance was headed. I did chemical engineering because it was supposed to be the future. Think of the line from the movie
The Graduate, which was very popular in our times -- "There ' s a great future in plastics." (Laughs) I guess, it left a mark on my mind.

In a sense, it also reflected two of the tenets on which my father built Reliance: always invest in businesses of the future and invest in talent. We believe in these two principles even today.


When did you start working for Reliance?


Even when I was doing chemical engineering, I was working almost full time for Reliance. I finished college at 2.30 pm and went straight to the office. I remember, we were raided and my father was in the US .


I was literally in charge, handling the problem. I must have been about 16 or 17. After chemical engineering, everybody said, ' what would you do ' ? My friends and I wrote all sorts of competitive exams. It was mainly driven by a desire to prove to ourselves that we are no less than anyone in the world. That attitude has not changed either. We even took the civil services exams just to see whether we can get into the list. Then we said, let us apply to Harvard, Stanford and other colleges. I was lucky to get into the top 2-3 business schools. I joined Stanford.


Our class and faculty were outstanding. Nobel Laureate, Bill Sharpe was a professor of financial economics. He made a great impact on me. I hit it off with him on day one -- just as I did with Professor MM Sharma. These are the kinds of professors who make you think out of the box.


Prof MM Sharma ' s first lecture was on how you make money in the chemical business. Bill Sharpe started by asking ' how do you make a difference to the world. ' It was my good fortune that I had a good set of professors and, of course, a great peer group.


While I was at Stanford, Reliance got a licence to make polyester. At that time (early ' 80s), the World Bank ' s Young Professional ' s Programme (YPP) was extremely prestigious. I was very keen to do it too. I had the choice of completing the Stanford graduate programme over the next six months, do the YPP for a year and then return to India . I planned to do this and return to work on the polyester plant.


But you didn ' t do that. What happened?


When I explained my thoughts to my father, he said, ' you are right in the way you have planned your things. I am starting work on the polyester plant. ' I said, ' Oh you are not going to wait for one and a half years? ' He said, ' No, I won ' t wait. ' So, I decided to come back immediately.


This was in 1981. Rasikbhai Meswani, Nikhil and Hital ' s father, was my first boss. The management style used to be very open. We could walk into each other ' s cabin, join in a meeting or get involved in any discussion. My father encouraged it. But when I joined Reliance formally, he said you need to have a boss and I was put under Rasikbhai ' s charge.


He was running our polyester business, which consisted of importing polyester fibre, texturising it and selling it to textile mills. It was a new business compared to our own textile mill at Naroda (near Ahmedabad) that brought in almost 60%-70% of the profits.


When we started work on setting up a polyester filament yarn project, my chemical engineering and business school background helped me in organising the work, creating reporting structures, motivating people. . . in all this, my father and Rasikbhai were two steps ahead of me.


We worked liked a partnership; I was fortunate to be able to contribute from day one. One of my biggest obsessions today is that senior people must give bright 25-year olds the opportunity to contribute meaningfully.


The time was different. Reliance has been in the middle of so much of tumultuous growth. You did many things for the first time in India . Isn ' t it difficult to replicate your own experiences?


Well, I will share with you my perspective. Even before we went public, my father used to say, we need capital but we don ' t want to be dependent on traditional sources of capital. It was very difficult to convince banks about his ambitious plans.


In the journey of an entrepreneur, the most important thing is self-belief and the ability to convert that belief into reality. He believed that we could raise money from the capital market and return it with profits. His second belief was that India is a great opportunity.


While going public was relatively a new thing, he also wanted to change the status quo and unleash disruptive changes. May be he did not articulate all this then.


The actions were loud enough. For instance, for many years, Reliance was not part of any trade or business association. It also had nothing to do with the old established houses.


Absolutely. That was his belief. He said, ' let ' s build a different company. ' This is my 25th year in Reliance as a full-time employee.


When I look back over the years, what did we change? We changed the mindset and we showed the way. Dhirubhai propelled the Indian capital market forward. We raised money only till the middle of 1985 and then in 1989. Then many others came along and raised money. That was a paradigm change.


The first 200-odd people who built Patalganga with me are still around, running different businesses. It has gone into their psyche that we do things differently here. We have taken money from ordinary Indians and we are their trustees. When this is drilled into thousands of people, you automatically get performance.


The other thing that is not visible externally is methods, processes, systems that moved Reliance away from a system that is totally owner-driven. We were among the last to put up a polyester plant. Before us there were Birlas, Modis, Singhanias, the multinationals -- everybody except the Tatas.


You were first among the new crop of licencees for Partially-Oriented Yarn.


Yes, but whoever already had a licence, had a business advantage. So, what competencies did we build? One was to get a licence in a licence-permit raj. Getting a licence is nothing; you have to build a sustainable business. Raising the money is another competence.


In the ' 80s, when I came in, the ground rules were made clear to me. ' Build this business from scratch, without taking anyone from Reliance. ' That forced you to be very disciplined. I looked around and figured out in three months that this industry runs on heroes.


Experts came in with their notebooks on which they had written down all the process conditions, temperatures, pressures and carried these readings back with them.


Are you talking of the consultants?


Even the managers. It was all a feudal style of management. If we had accepted that style, we would not have grown. It was simply not a scalable model. Of course, the easiest thing would have been to follow it. But we had a disruptive style of management. So we said, ' we don ' t want people carrying their wisdom in notebooks as if it is some kind of secretive operation. '


We tried to create an open environment. In today ' s language, we created SOPs and SOCs
(standard operating procedures, standard operating conditions) so that everybody was on the same page. We wanted an organisation where everybody contributes but the business is not dependent on a few individuals.

When our competitors were buying licences for half a million and one million dollars, we agreed to pay DuPont $5 million, because we wanted to work with the best in the world. We had limited capital but our approach was different. We got a few experts from DuPont and put some 25-year-olds with them to learn how to manage operations and sustain chemical processes.


The vision of the top person, in deciding that this was the right path, was totally different from what existed in India . It was a big thing.


Reliance went through turbulent times in the mid-80s when there was this long battle with the government and the media. Then Dhirubhai suffered a stroke. From the outside, it seemed that Reliance would be sorely tested because the perception was that so much was built by "managing the system."


This is where investing in talent works. We had different sets of competencies in Reliance. If it meant getting licences to import something quickly to reduce the cycle time or to get steel from Steel Authority -- there were people with relevant competencies handling those things to ensure that the project is completed in time.


There was another set of competencies for the operational part -- how do you run things efficiently. That strength of Reliance was underestimated.


What went on in your mind during the crisis?


We lost Rasikbhai on 30th August, 1985. That was a huge blow. Then my father suffered a stroke in February-- two major events in five months. From three of us running the business, for some time, I suddenly became alone. But my father recovered reasonably by June-July.


There was no sense of panic. The whole picture was in my head. That was the strength of the open system. If I had kept everything close to my chest, it would have been difficult. We had excellent people across the company. The polyester business was institutionalised and there was a plan in place. We just kept our heads down and executed it.


When the economy opened up in 1992, there was a lot of apprehension about whether Indian companies would survive. What was your gameplan?


We were clear that we had to be internationally competitive and were passionate about building competencies that were the best in the world even when the tariffs were very high. It was an obsession with me to beat the Taiwanese and the Koreans who dominated the polyester business in the ' 70s.


That was possible only when all aspects of the business were better than them. One critical factor is scale. We understood that, unless we had scale, we won ' t be world-beaters. Remember, with enormous effort and all the limitations of the licence-permit-raj (between 1981 and 1991), we had built a polyester capacity of 75,000 tonnes. But we had also built a different mindset by looking outside India .


So, when the deregulation came, we were ready. By the middle of ' 95, we were producing 1 million tonnes. A spring was released. Tariffs also fell sharply from 150% to 30% and later to 10%. We wanted to be internationally competitive even when the tariffs were 300%, but being based in India became a competitive advantage when the tariff level fell to 30%.


By that time, we had developed superb project execution capability. We had more than 300 top quality people to execute the projects. From the ' 80s till today, we have not struggled to start up any plant. The biggest companies in the world do not have this kind of record.


How did Reliance develop this mindset? There was hardly anything, except some public sector companies as a reference in India .


My reference points were US companies. We were hugely influenced by large US chemical companies, especially DuPont. It was a very open company and we could take advantage of their learnings. The US is also a very open society. I could to go the US Association of Chemical Engineers and get the standards, data, etc.


It was not the Internet age, but it was easy. It sometimes cost us money to buy what we needed but the investment was worth it to put the right thought process in place.


Critically, some of the leadership came from public sector managers. For instance, KK Malhotra, who was with us for 15 years from 1985, made a fantastic contribution. He was my guru. He ensured that we imbibe all the best practices.


You see, all the right things are written in books and research papers. The trick is to ensure that there is no gap between what is written in the books and your vision; from what is happening on the shopfloor and what is going on in the marketplace. That is execution. That is what makes the difference.


So, in short, we had a huge US bias and great public sector talent. It was not a large group, just 5-6 outstanding people. I always believe that so-called ordinary people can achieve extraordinary results as long they are given a sensible framework. We have been able to do it in industry after industry.


Till 2000, Reliance always said it wanted to capture the entire value of the oil and petrochemicals chain, but after 2000, you have gone in different directions. What caused the change in thinking?


We had three thoughts. One was the fundamental belief that we will invest in businesses of the future and we will invest in talent. We clearly saw that from oil to fabric was a value chain of opportunity and it will remain so for many future decades.


We executed that well and created enough disruptions in the polyester, plastics, refinery and the upstream business of oil and gas. We had very good cash flows. In late ' 90s, we had two options. One was to make the current business more global, bigger and better. The other option was to use our cash flows to do something else.


We were sitting right in this room and my father said ' now it is your call, what you would like to do. ' I said, ' we must use the competencies and cash flows to make a difference to millions of Indians ' . He said, ' that ' s exactly what I had mind. Let ' s do it. ' The strategy was: while we strengthen our current business, we will use our cash flows to invest in the businesses of the future. That ' s how Infocomm was born.


There is a sense that, in the early 1990s, you missed the bus on the biggest opportunity of the future -- the IT business.


We saw the IT business coming. I lived in Silicon Valley . I knew it was a big opportunity. I mentioned it in a speech in 1995 -- the clear arbitrage opportunity for software development. But for us, it was a question of focus and trade-off.


I was very focussed on building various competencies in Reliance and we were not ready to do two things at the same time. It was a big risk for us to get into IT, especially because it was hugely effort-intensive. In my language, I said we have too much soap on our body and we need to take a bath in the chemicals business.


We had signed a JV with Microsoft, but decided to pass up that opportunity. To my mind, I was right. We still needed to build that focus.


So, in the late ' 90s, you zeroed in on telecom, life sciences and retailing. . .


Actually, my father was very keen on the agri-business. He said, that is the real big business in India . We looked at three or four businesses. We got into life sciences as a defence mechanism in the late ' 90s. In 1996-97, we were big in plastics already when Dow announced that they would make plastics from E Coli.


It looked like our business would be ruined because we would buy naphtha and these guys would make plastics from salt and water. We quickly put four or five guys together to understand what Dow Chemicals was doing. That is when we started the industrial biotech business.


Then, we stumbled on human and plant biotech. We were fortunate to have some good people and decided that Reliance can build this business over 5-10 years without any great revenue pressures. In the mainstream business, there was telecom or what I call infocomm.


We got into telecom in the ' 90s by bidding for cellular licences. But I felt that the real value is in the convergence of information and communication; pure communication will not deliver a sustainable value; that is why we called ourselves infocomm. It was learning a whole new domain. We brought in experts from the outside but we essentially did it with proven Reliance people.


And then you got into retailing. . .


Within organised retailing, we are really talking of agri-based retailing. For a variety of reasons, our economy did not get a chance to develop a sustainable value chain in the foods business.


The US and Europe saw large players in foods by the ' 50s and ' 60s; but in India , food has always been a disorganised, fragmented value chain. We believe that India ' s purchasing power will be food-dominated. The first thing we need is safe to eat food that will, in turn, meet many other needs.


But all kinds of mindless legislation remains in place and other players like Hindustan Lever have tried to get around it without real success.


True. But we are in a different era. It is easier for people to see the value proposition -- 28% of our GDP comes from agriculture, but 60% of the people depend on it. So, if we want to make a difference to this 60%, we will have to bring agriculture to its true potential.


Having looked at it obsessively for the past year, I feel that we can convert all our disadvantages into an opportunity. We have fragmented landholdings; but we can integrate that with technology. With proper inputs, there is no reason why Indian farmers cannot become world-class. What is missing? It is distribution.


We now have an opportunity to straightway catch the next wave of distribution logistics. We don ' t have to go through what the world went through and we can build what even the US will not have by 2010. That is possible today. In terms of sheer money, it may take Rs 25,000 crore (Rs 250 billion).


In the earlier days, it was impossible for corporates to think of this. Today, it is possible for the world to finance it and for you to execute a distribution network. We are not big believers in contract farming. So we have removed the ' r ' out of cont(r)act farming. I believe that everyone should be able to relate to market economy. If you produce something, you should be able to sell it at a market price.


What is the model that will deliver your vision?


We are working at putting the most modern technology in farms at Indian costs. I always say whatever the US implements in dollars we should be able to do it at exchange rate of Rs 10, then we would be globally competitive.


When we start off, this looks impossible. Then we think through it, value-engineer it and come close to it. That is the cost part. Then comes the quality issue. While we are working at improving the offering to the Indian consumer, we are ultimately interested in connecting the Indian farmer to the global market. Global consumers have to accept Indian agricultural products.


We all know India has a huge competitive advantage -- we have the largest arable land, focused sunshine, sensible utilisation of water in 30% of land. The question is what should we do to make the US market -- the most difficult market in the world -- accept our produce. For that, we need traceability. It is a simple technology, which we are giving the farmers. It needs certification and verification processes -- to us it is like a process plant. You can then get the output, sort it and grade it.


At what point to grade is a decision that Reliance will make, at the farm level or at the intermediary ' s level. . . what is least-cost, what works, what everybody is comfortable with.


Coarse products are easy, the problem with fresh produce is perishability -- it becomes worthless in seven days. That is why farmers are not producing fresh. That is the tallest mountain for us to climb. . . to put in place distribution and logistics to handle fresh. If we can send fresh produce through technology and distribution from any farm in India to anywhere in the world at their quality standards, then imagine the arbitrage.


What is the arbitrage? Can you give us an example.


We talked of IT. What is IT? It is the arbitrage between the per hour rate in the US and India . We have gone from zero to $20 billion in exporting software, employing about 1 million people in 10 years. These million people changed the brand of India , consumption pattern and gave us the confidence that we can do everything.


The arbitrage has narrowed but is still there. It will disappear in a few decades by which time our software exports may be $100 billion. From a million people, it will benefit 10 million people. If that is what has happened in software, imagine what will happen in agriculture.


Is there this kind of arbitrage in agriculture?


Let me give you some numbers. Take potatoes, the most common food across the world. From Bill Gates to my driver, everybody eats potatoes. Now, plot the prices. Farmers in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar get about Rs 4-5 a kilo; in the Middle East , the wholesale price is about Rs 25-30 a kilo. In the US , Sam ' s Club, it is Rs 90 a kilo. In Europe , it is Rs 110 a kilo. The arbitrage is 1:20. If we get our produce right, and if the US market is opened up, you will be surprised how quickly we reach $20 billion.


The food market is much bigger than the software services market. And the money goes straight into the hands of millions of farmers. The spinoffs are enormous -- jobs, houses, durables, a whole new consumption boom will start in rural areas.


What about the front end -- the retailing sector?


The most employment-intensive industry in the world is retail and our next generation needs these jobs. India has a strategy for the next generation of doctors, engineers and biotech graduates, etc. But for the country as a whole, what we need to resolve is how to create sensible jobs for undergraduates and or those even less educated.


Organised retail alone can absorb these people in large numbers. We estimate about 1.5 million jobs from this sector over the next three years. In the process, we will reduce the cost to consumers by 20% and increase the efficiency of farmers thrice over. Farm incomes can go up 600% to 900% over the next few years from the current base.


By higher prices or higher output?


Higher output. The country produces 150 million tonnes of fresh produce today. We can go to 300-400 million tonnes fairly quickly over a few crop cycles, as long as we can move those millions through the system and have world-class quality.


This means that when you go to the market -- doesn ' t matter whether it is Reliance or Bharti -- you should have the confidence that you are buying quality and it is safe to eat. After meeting the needs of Indian consumers, how do we take advantage in fresh through exports and value added industry such as processing?


It ' s really a yield-productivity-distribution story that we are involved with right now. Our strategy is fundamentally different from the others.


In what sense?


Most other retailers come in when purchasing power has developed. That ' s what Wal-Mart did in China . India is also at that inflection point, so retail chains would come in and start in the urban areas and move backward.


Ours is a diametrically opposite strategy. We are driven by creating purchasing power first. The farmers will have purchasing power and their staff will have purchasing power. Today, the farmer with two acres of land has five people in his family. It is like running a factory, but one that is only running 20% of the time because 80% of the time he cannot sell his products.


He doesn ' t have the inputs to produce the right quality. What we have to do is win his trust and bring him to his true potential so that he can run his two acres at 90% and increase his income by nine times. Once we do it, it is such a big market that there is a place for at least 5-6 players like us. We can ' t do it all alone. But we can show the way.


It is like in telecom; when we said we will get 10 million phone users, a lot of people laughed. Today, there are 3-4 guys who are getting a million customers a month. We think exactly the same needs to happen in farms. When that happens, we will have created purchasing power.


We will start at the bottom and sell them their first cooking range, first washing machine, first bed -- whatever is needed to improve quality of life. All this will create sustainable employment. That is really retail as we see it. We need to execute it well and prove some of these hypotheses. We might be wrong in some of them so we will have to fine tune, adjust and learn.


We only have a superficial knowledge about the true rural India -- the power structure, how to operate in tehsils, what are their true concerns, etc. But we think we can significantly change purchasing power and how we live. That ' s what motivates us.


How far have your progressed in your plans?


We have pilot projects in Andhra Pradesh, Punjab and West Bengal . In all three places, we are very encouraged. There will be some big learning involved but the potential undoubtedly exists.


You also have massive plans for SEZs. What is the thought process there?


The logic of SEZ is simple. India is long on talent and we need to create as many jobs as possible in manufacturing and services.


India
's land bank is about 750-800 million acres. Out of this, 500 million acres can be potentially farmed, but today only 300-350 million is arable and used for agriculture. We need to bring the remaining 150 million acres into productive use. More than 100 million households rely on this land base. India is creating 800,000 engineers a year and 400,00-500,000 semi-professionals. So we will bring in about 2 million professionals into the workforce annually over the next 20 years. We need to create jobs for them.

Government jobs and self-employment in manufacturing are not enough. It is large companies that create employment. That ' s the reality. So we have the supply of talent that can potentially be of the highest quality and lowest cost for 10 years and we also have large markets here.


What is missing? It is integrated infrastructure and a reasonable assurance of facilities that are good for at least 10 years. My target company would want to come to India but operate near the big metros. This is the example that you learn from Shanghai or Shenzen. That is where our SEZs with integrated infrastructure come in -- they provide an integrated airport, seaport, transportation, power and housing -- all at sensible costs.


When I put out a comparative chart, I should be able to tell big employers: this is how we compare with Singapore , Dubai , Shenzhen or Malaysia and Korea . On every parameter, I should beat others in cost and quality of infrastructure. India might be short of infrastructure but here you have guaranteed infrastructure and talent.


You are near Bombay and Delhi and have access to the Indian market and global markets. So ours is an employment-led SEZ. The strategy is first to get the employer. I think we can create 5 million jobs in each of the two 25,000-acre SEZs. But we need many more just to make sure that most of our educated youth is occupied.


The criticism is that SEzs are really land plays. . .


Most people don ' t understand that the residential commercial piece is also a big cost element in SEZs. For employers to attract and retain talent, India has to be almost as attractive as the US . So I have to provide for the cost of living -- housing, shopping environment and everything else exactly like the US , but at an Indian cost.


We have a big talent pool in the US and they are coming back with huge enthusiasm. For our agri-business, we are now bringing back a lot of talented Indians from the US who have worked in Wholesale Foods, Kraft, etc.


We offer to protect their savings in a job here. If you earn $100,000 a year there, you also spend $80,000 and save $15,000-$20,000. We say, if you work for us in India , we will ensure you save $15,000 dollars a year and are part of something exciting without a loss to you.


But this doesn ' t work without a scheme. If you ask me to build a power plant, I cannot give that power at 3 cents or 4 cents, unless I put up a 2000 MW project. It ' s the same for an airport, seaport and all the other stuff. You need to spread costs over a sensible size to keep unit costs low.


These projects will take time to fructify. When do you expect to start getting returns?


Both agri-business and SEZs will make a sustainable return in the long run and we have a strong enough balance sheet to sustain these. At the end of the day, it will leave us with the satisfaction of having tried to show the way. The easiest thing for me is to go to London and New York , sit in a hotel, talk to investment bankers and buy 10 companies.


Are you going to do that too?


(Laughs) Depends on the value we get and what excites us. But that ' s the easy stuff. What does it take? It ' s deal-making followed by a PR pitch to justify it. That doesn ' t give me the same satisfaction: of saying that we tried our hardest to blaze a new trail or change the status quo. There are 300 to 400 of us who think the same way.


Young people want to go to Punjab and stay there for a month to figure out what works. In telecom, when we said we would go into six lakh villages, a lot of our friends thought it ' s all talk. Even the regulator was sceptical. Today, it is rural areas that are making more money.


I have noticed that talent is automatically motivated by larger goals and some of the brightest people want to do things that are different. After we hire from the IIMs and IITs every year, we run them through a six-month induction programme where we teach them the Reliance way and let them choose where they want to work through a competitive framework.


Each business makes a presentation. In the ' 90s, finance and treasury was the in-thing. Then, it was marketing. In the last two years, most bright young people want to work in rural areas. This is a big mindset change.


In retailing, they are saying, we don ' t want to do merchandising; we want to create those rural markets. In that sense, it is great fun. I always tell my young guys, we are going on an expedition together. When you do that we need to support each other because we can get lost quickly.


In this wide canvass, aren ' t you looking at the education sector?


Education is one of the many services we aim to offer. I personally worked for three months on education and healthcare as part of Prime Minister Vajpayee ' s advisory. It is a tougher mountain to climb.


Education is the first aspiration of Indians, no matter what the prosperity level. In that sense, you have a ready customer.


(Laughs) To learn what you said, we spent crores of rupees. After our restructuring, we wondered what we should be getting into and got the best brains together to visualise where the big opportunities are. We studied what people want to spend their money on at all income levels and in different geographies.


People first want to spend money on food -- that is common across the world. The second, in India , is education. In many parts of the world, it comes way down the list of priorities. So, there is a huge opportunity.


What has been your best investment so far?


Our best investment has been in technology and in developing skills. For instance, we invested Rs300 crore in technology that gave us unparalleled transparency and accountability within the organisation.


It allows us to spend Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion) a year and sleep in peace. We were among the first to introduce videoconferencing in India . In the 80s, we invested in helicopters to go to Patalganga to save time. People saw it as flashy lifestyle. For us, it was facilitating investments.


The other big investment we are now making is in talent. We are developing a culture of creativity that will, in turn, create critical product-service differentials. You must see our life sciences business to appreciate this. Another way to say this is that we are investing to build the skills and experience of our people so that they can then believe in their conviction, take risks and deliver results. Let me also answer the flipside.


We have not invested well in marketing ourselves. It is partly because of my trait. I believe that if my conviction is right, I will not need to go and explain myself to anyone. I believed that ultimately everyone will figure out what you are. We are changing this approach.


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